Something Just Broke the Bond Market
9/1/2026 · 31 min · transcript via mlx
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Key topics
— Global government bond yields are rising sharply across the US, Japan, Germany, France, and the UK, marking the highest levels since the 2008–2011 crisis era, driven by structural shifts in capital allocation and investment demand.
— Bond yields reflect compensation for inflation, and 2026 faces structurally higher inflation than the past 15 years due to pandemic supply-chain disruption and persistent price-level increases.
— Kevin Warsh told G20 finance leaders that the global savings glut has reversed into an investment surge, with capital flowing from treasuries into higher-yielding private-sector assets and AI infrastructure buildout.
— NVIDIA chips and other hardware are becoming collateral in bond financings, and data center economics promise multiples-on-return in first-year income, making private-sector lending vastly more attractive than government bonds.
— Geopolitical factors including US economic war on trade partners, China's AI self-reliance race, and onshoring efforts are accelerating global investment cycles and capital reallocation.
— The TBL Pulse terminal now tracks TBL liquidity signals, state-grid metrics, and trend lines; liquidity turned positive on 13 August after six months of ranging, and Johan Bergman's state grid shows Bitcoin exiting capitulation.
Market & price signals
— Bitcoin has appreciated approximately 21% since the TBL liquidity buy signal on 13 August 2025 (entry around $63,000–$64,000). Bond yields rising and dollar strength are short-term liquidity-negative headwinds; however, the TBL liquidity active strategy outperformed buy-and-hold by over 60% year-to-date by avoiding major downturns in January–February and May–June. Johan Bergman's state grid shows Bitcoin transitioning from capitulation zone to bullish territory over the past two weeks, though a confirmed bull market has not yet been established. Global banking assets continue rising to support the investment surge.
Actionable insights
— Monitor the TBL liquidity signal and global bond-yield trends as leading indicators of capital flow direction; rising yields and dollar strength signal liquidity headwinds, but the reversal of the savings glut suggests a structural macro tailwind for risk assets including Bitcoin over coming years.
— Understand that Bitcoin's price is sensitive to liquidity conditions, not just inflation; the shift from savings to investment changes the risk-reward profile of both government bonds and Bitcoin, making medium-term macro analysis (geopolitics, AI capex, currency debasement) essential for positioning.
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