Why Isn't Bitcoin Going Up? | Jordi Visser

— Jerome Powell's Jackson Hole speech signaled a shift toward employment concerns over inflation, with a 25 basis point rate cut in September now highly likely, marking a policy adjustment that Visser views as acknowledging weakening labor data.

— PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) surveys indicate a potential cyclical upswing in manufacturing after nearly four years of weakness, driven by AI infrastructure buildout and data center expansion.

— AI's deflationary impact through digital employees and eventual humanoid robots will compress costs across housing, manufacturing, and services, though this effect remains 2–3 years away from widespread productivity gains.

— The MAG-7 has underperformed the broader S&P 500 despite strong earnings growth, with Apple and Tesla facing headwinds from tariffs and lack of visible AI monetization return on invested capital.

— Bitcoin remains correlated to equity market sentiment and Fed rate expectations, failing to break above $125k despite Ethereum's summer breakout, though PMI strength historically signals Bitcoin upside.

— The "academic Fed" focused on recent data misses exponential innovation dynamics; an administration-aligned Fed may tolerate higher inflation (2–3% range) to support growth and lower long-term rates.

— Monitor the September 9 labor market benchmark revision (500k–900k job losses estimated); combined with next CPI and jobs reports, this data will confirm whether the Fed's dual-mandate shift toward employment justifies rate cuts despite prices-paid PMI rising.

— Consider rotation from mega-cap AI software (MAG-7) into hardware infrastructure plays, data center operators, and companies benefiting from PMI-driven capital spending, as Visser's thesis predicts hardware outperformance over software amid AI disruption of tech margins.