#520: Jordi Visser on Allocating Billions of Dollars Today
3/25/2021 · 45 min · transcript via mlx
Tags
Key topics
— Macroeconomic changes since COVID-19: unprecedented direct cash transfers to consumers alongside low rates have fundamentally altered spending behavior and market dynamics.
— Inflation outlook: expect headline inflation to peak at 5.5–6% by end of summer 2021, driven by supply-chain disruption (trade war + COVID), underinvestment in commodities, and excess consumer demand; core inflation likely reaches 3% before technology moderates prices within 3–4 years.
— Generational wealth shift and market structure: millennials becoming dominant demographic and inheriting ~$70 trillion over 30 years, favoring smaller-cap and micro-cap securities over mega-cap tech; Reddit and retail investors reshaping market microstructure.
— Bitcoin as emerging store of value: Bitcoin is displacing gold as a hedge asset for sub-50 demographic; acts as both a technology and medium of exchange; benefits from government money-printing and asset inflation.
— Portfolio positioning: favor small/micro caps, biotech (longevity), 3D printing (localization post-trade war), avoid short positions in small caps; avoid traditional bonds given historically low yields globally.
— Behavioral and analytical discipline: use technology, data, and diverse teams to identify biases; prioritize fast portfolio turnover to exploit market dispersion and volatility rather than long-term passive holding.
Market & price signals
— Out of 120+ S&P 1500 companies already up over 25% YTD (as of early 2021), only eight have market cap above $10 billion, indicating shift from mega-cap to small-cap dominance. Six mega-cap tech names (Amazon, Apple, Google, Microsoft, Tesla, Facebook) represent $8.3 trillion in combined market cap—greater than the bottom 86% of S&P 1500. Personal income in US grew during 2020 recession (unprecedented), supported by stimulus checks and elevated savings rates. Treasury yields remain below 2% globally; US yields positive relative to Japan/Europe, forcing investors out the risk curve into equities. Housing appreciation rivals pre-2008 crisis levels. Bitcoin adoption accelerating among institutional and retail participants; no price targets mentioned.
Actionable insights
— Allocate a meaningful percentage of your gold holdings into Bitcoin as a store of value hedge, recognizing the generational shift in asset preference and the durability of decentralized systems versus commodity-based alternatives.
— Overweight small and micro-cap securities with exposure to longevity biotech, 3D printing, and energy/materials (beaten-down sectors); avoid shorting these names given the structural change in retail investor participation and reduced institutional short interest.
— Expect headline inflation to persist through summer 2021 but remain deflation-minded long-term; position portfolios for short-term supply scarcity (restaurants, travel, commodities) while expecting technology to normalize prices by 2024–2025; avoid extended-duration bonds yielding below 2%.
Episode sponsorships
Paid placements mentioned in this episode. BTC Pods is not sponsored by or affiliated with these advertisers. Links are included so you can find offers mentioned on the show.
— OKCoin is a US-based regulated exchange serving 184 countries with some of the lowest fees in the industry. You can register, verify your profile, and connect your bank account in minutes—faster than most competitors. Visit okcoin.com/pomp to open an account and access Bitcoin, DeFi tokens, and other popular assets.
— With over 10 million users, Crypto.com is the easiest way to buy and sell over 100 cryptocurrencies. Download the Crypto.com app and use code POMP to get $25. The Crypto.com Visa Card gives you up to 8% back instantly, 100% back on Spotify and Netflix, the ability to earn up to 8.5% annual percentage rate on Bitcoin and 14% on stablecoins, plus airport lounge access—all with no annual or monthly fees. Download the app at crypto.com.
— Pomp writes a daily letter to over 50,000 investors about business, technology, and finance, breaking down complex topics into easy-to-understand language while sharing opinions on various aspects of each industry. You can subscribe at pompletter.com.