This Is The End Of The Dollar System | Jeff Ross

— Bitcoin technicals: Bitcoin has repeatedly failed to hold above the 100-day moving average since October (rejected at ~$97k in January, currently ~$75k). Guest expects potential capitulation toward $50–60k range before sustainable recovery.

— Macro-economic policy shift: Trump administration in "war footing" mentality with massive fiscal spending on military, manufacturing, energy, and rare earths rather than austerity. This will expand the liquidity blob into the real economy.

— Three economic "burners": (1) Liquidity size and direction; (2) ISM Manufacturing PMI recovery from unprecedented post-WWII contraction; (3) Return of bank lending and leverage into markets.

— Geopolitical escalation & World War III thesis: Guest argues we're already in WWIII (proxy wars, fragmentation). Predicts U.S. may occupy Karg Island in Persian Gulf to control Iran's oil as leverage in multipolar world shift.

— Structural inflation 3–6%, with deflationary AI/robotics headwinds: Wartime spending will drive inflation; automation simultaneously creates deflationary pressure but displaces workers, causing social instability.

— AI/jobless recovery crisis: Technology is eliminating white-collar and blue-collar jobs simultaneously. Without redistribution mechanism (UBI or universal basic services), desperation and civil unrest will escalate.

— Bitcoin: Currently ~$74–75k, fighting 100-day MA. Guest expects one more leg lower to $50–60k range; long-term accumulation zone. Dollar strength recently broke lower (bullish for risk assets). Bitcoin tracking software stocks rather than functioning as sound money narrative.

— Gold: March was worst month since 2013 (overbought correction). Guest dismisses Iran conflict boost as normal bounce after oversold period.

— Oil: Coming down from highs; strong dollar recently broke. Lower oil generally supportive for risk assets.

— Rates: Coming down again. Strong dollar breaking. These moves "reflexively" bullish for Bitcoin and risk assets.

— Year-end outlook: Q4 seasonality + U.S. midterm election cycle historically bullish. Guest expects painful chop through mid-to-late 2026, then strong finish to year (sell in May pattern applies).

— For long-term holders: Current levels ($70–75k) represent value. Guest personally wants to buy lower ($50–60k range) and expects that opportunity within weeks to months. Do not chase; accumulate on capitulation.

— Monitor three macro indicators as Bitcoin proxies: Liquidity blob direction (government spending into real economy, not asset inflation), ISM Manufacturing PMI (now above 50 and accelerating), and bank lending growth (currently healthy). These predict Bitcoin's directional bias better than Fed policy in near term.

— Prepare for structural inflation (3–6% sustained) + potential UBI/wealth redistribution: Whether through explicit policy or market force, wealth concentration will face pressure. Sound money (Bitcoin, gold) should outperform in financial repression scenario, but only *after* near-term capitulation and bottoming pattern completes.