One Level Decides Bitcoin’s Bull Market

— Strong U.S. jobs report with broad sector gains and wage growth, though ISM employment readings show some labor market weakness beneath the NFP headline.

— Two-year Treasury yield at 4.38% signals the highest rate-hike expectations since the election; Nik expects policy intervention from Treasury and Fed to push front-end rates lower rather than allow actual hikes.

— U.S. interest expense approaching 25% of tax revenue, making rate hikes unsustainable; government debt heading past $40 trillion with no expectation of spending cuts on defense, Medicare, or Social Security.

— Ten-year yield testing 4.81% (January 2024 high); curve flattening indicates demand for safe assets rather than debt-spiral concerns.

— Bitcoin versus gold showing basing and early breakout after 2025 weakness; Bitcoin weekly chart resistance at 82,700—critical level determining whether consolidation holds or bull resumes.

— Europe (France, UK, Italy) facing more acute yield stress and political instability than the U.S.; ECB closer to QE than the Fed.

— Monitor the 82,700 weekly close on Bitcoin as the key trigger: failure to close above signals continued downside risk, while sustained closes above would suggest the consolidation has held and the bull is returning.

— Watch Treasury front-end rates (two-year around 4.38%) and the 4.81% ten-year level as leading indicators of potential policy intervention; if the ten-year closes above 4.81%, yield curve control and other extraordinary measures become likely.

— European yields (France, UK) are a greater crisis risk than U.S. yields despite the U.S. debt burden; position accordingly for potential ECB QE and European financial stress before major U.S. sovereign problems emerge.