Bitcoin Just Failed Three Times

— Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole speech prompted significant market moves, particularly in the two-year yield reaching ~4.35%, near its highest level in over a year and close to the 4.375% threshold that would lock in a rate-hike expectation.

— The yield curve flattened from 50 to 37 basis points this week, a move Nik identifies as the most important market signal because curve compression prices growth out of the economy.

— Michael Howell's liquidity interpretation of yield curve flattening frames it as evidence of demand for safe assets in a risk-off environment, contrasting with the classical growth-slowdown narrative.

— Bitcoin failed three times this week to break above $81,000 (Tuesday, Thursday, Friday), closing with a bearish engulfing candle that wiped out Wednesday and Thursday gains.

— The Bitcoin-to-gold ratio popped above the 16.5 level, breaking a head-and-shoulders pattern, though daily price action shows some consolidation signals.

— TBL liquidity peaked in February 2024 coinciding with peak yield curve steepness; the current flattening cycle mirrors classical post-inflation dynamics where central banks prevent the curve from steepening too much.

— Monitor the 4.375% two-year yield level closely; a break above it signals market confidence in imminent rate hikes, which historically correlates with growth slowdowns and potential Bitcoin volatility.

— Yield curve flattening (now at 37bp) typically precedes either recession risk or sustained low-growth conditions; use this as a macro lens to contextualize Bitcoin's consolidation and avoid overconfidence in breakouts to new highs.

— Bitcoin's three failed attempts at $81,000 and bearish weekly engulfing candle suggest near-term consolidation; traders using TBL liquidity metrics or multi-timeframe analysis may benefit from avoiding breakout chasing until clearer support/resistance is established.