Bitcoin’s Bull Run Is Absorbing MASSIVE Selling w/ James Check
7/16/2025 · 30 min · transcript via mlx
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Key topics
— The movement of 80,000 Bitcoin dormant since 2011 to Galaxy Digital's OTC desk, with speculation about ownership, quantum computing risks, and possible explanations (scam opcodes, consolidation into modern wallets, or lending arrangements).
— A "very quiet all-time high" characterized by low spot volume (~$5B/day vs. $18–20B in November), declining futures volume, but surging on-chain volume and options activity, signaling a shift in market structure dominated by large capital moves.
— Short liquidations up to $120K, with funding rates historically low before the breakout, creating a "max pain scenario" that squeezed shorts higher after breaking the previous all-time high.
— The ETF and institutional demand reshaping market cycles: long-term holder supply patterns differ from 2017 and 2021, with two major sell-side events in 2024 (March and October) absorbed without reversing uptrend.
— New metrics relevant to this cycle (MVRV, realized profit, coin day destruction, revived supply) showing enduring relevance of on-chain data despite ETF proliferation; confluence across derivatives, spot, and on-chain sectors confirming market conviction.
— Price targets and potential consolidation zones: $125–130K likely triggers sell-side pressure from short-term holders; $170–180K enters rare statistical territory; macro bull peaks typically require grinding consolidation rather than explosive moves.
Market & price signals
— Bitcoin broke above its previous all-time high and rallied to $117K at recording, up ~10% from the prior peak. Spot volume collapsed to $5 billion/day from $18–20 billion in November, while futures volume fell from $120B to ~$85B daily. On-chain volume, however, surged to $18 billion/day—a divergence indicating large institutional capital movements in few transactions rather than retail participation. Funding rates were historically depressed before the breakout, suggesting heavy short positioning liquidated up to $120K. Options volume spiked with speculative call buying, yet futures open interest began declining post-breakout. Long-term holder supply recently climbed to near all-time highs after two distinct sell-side waves (March 2024 at $73K and October at $100K); dollar value of selling absorbed exceeds 2017 totals despite higher prices. MVRV (market-value-to-realized-value) oscillators suggest $125–130K entry into short-term holder overvaluation; $170–180K reaches rare statistical territory (top 5% of all trading days). Google Trends show zero interest spikes, indicating lack of retail FOMO.
Actionable insights
— Watch for volume confluence across spot, derivatives, and on-chain markets over the next 1–2 weeks; sustained low volume at new all-time highs may warrant re-evaluation of breakout strength and could presage consolidation or retesting of prior support.
— Use on-chain metrics like MVRV and realized profit as early warning signals for local tops: $125–130K likely triggers meaningful sell-side pressure from short-term holders, creating absorption points that may require weeks of consolidation before driving higher.
— Remain flexible with time horizons; while 2024 saw two major long-term holder exit events absorbed without reversing the uptrend (extremely bullish), reaching $150K+ requires a trillion-dollar market-cap move and will test demand; expect stair-stepped moves and grinding support-building rather than explosive euphoric rallies.
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