#568 Is The Bitcoin Sell-Off Over?? w/ Will Clemente
5/29/2021 · 24 min · transcript via mlx
Tags
Key topics
— Will Clemente provided an on-chain analysis of Bitcoin's recent price movements, highlighting a clear rotation from short-term holders (who are selling) to long-term holders (who continue accumulating).
— Exchange flows have reversed from inflows to outflows, indicating renewed accumulation rather than distribution at current price levels.
— New entities joining the Bitcoin network have resumed growth after trending downward for a month, suggesting retail interest at lower prices.
— Miner accumulation has plateaued since mid-May, with notable selling pressure from Chinese mining pools, particularly Pulin.
— The SOPR (Spend Output Profit Ratio) has recovered into net profit territory, signaling capitulation has likely already occurred and the market is healing.
— Key technical resistance levels are the 200-day moving average (~$40,750–$41,000), $50,000, $53,000, and $59,000–$60,000; key support is $30,000.
Market & price signals
— Bitcoin has recovered from last week's capitulation and liquidation event, bouncing from lows near $32,000–$33,000 to trade in a consolidated range. The 200-day moving average sits around $40,750–$41,000, with subsequent resistance at $50,000 and $53,000. On-chain data shows the market has moved back into aggregate profit (SOPR positive), indicating that those forced to sell at losses have largely exited. Long-term holder balances continue growing while short-term holder supply declines, contrasting with historical cycle patterns where retail typically accumulates near tops.
Actionable insights
— Long-term holders are accumulating aggressively while traders remain hesitant; this structural pattern differs from previous cycles and may signal a stronger, more durable bull market with fewer retail speculators at the top.
— The plateau in miner accumulation combined with selling from Chinese miners suggests near-term supply pressure, but overall exchange flows and entity growth metrics are not flashing capitulation risk—consolidation rather than crisis appears likely.
— Watch for confirmation above the 200-day moving average and $50,000 before committing fresh capital; if $30,000 is broken, support becomes scarce until $20,000, making it a binary risk zone.
Episode sponsorships
Paid placements mentioned in this episode. BTC Pods is not sponsored by or affiliated with these advertisers. Links are included so you can find offers mentioned on the show.
— LMAX Digital is the leading institutional cryptocurrency exchange with current average daily volumes of $2 billion. Built on proven, trusted LMAX Group trading technology, LMAX Digital delivers market-leading solutions for trading and custodial services for the most liquid crypto currencies. Learn more at lmaxdigital.com/pomp.
— Remote allows you to employ people in other countries legally and easily, taking care of international payroll, employee benefits, and all paperwork for local compliance. Listeners get 50% off your first employee for the first three months. Check out remote.com/pomp and enter promo code POMP to get started.
— Revolut is a finance app in the US and UK offering the simplest way to access crypto. Sign up at Revolut.com/pomp, make three card transactions, and get $15 to exchange for Bitcoin or any other tokens Revolut supports. Revolut is a financial technology company; banking services are provided by Metropolitan Commercial Bank (Member FDIC), and cryptocurrency services are provided by Paxos Trust Company, LLC.