#727 What Is Going On With Bitcoin? w/ Will Clemente
11/20/2021 · 44 min · transcript via mlx
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Key topics
— Bitcoin corrected from $69K to below $60K this week, triggering panic on social media despite broader bull market structure remaining intact since September.
— Short-term holder SOPR and realized price metrics show the current dip below the one threshold presents a buying opportunity consistent with historical bull market patterns.
— Long-term holders have begun distributing coins again over the past two weeks, which is normal bull market behavior and a leading indicator typically preceding 2–3 months of continued price appreciation.
— Multiple on-chain metrics (MVRVZ, dormancy flow, liquid supply shock) confirm the market remains far from overheated conditions seen in 2013 and 2017.
— The $53K level represents a critical support floor ($1 trillion market cap threshold); daily closes above it maintain bull market structure.
— Funding rates and leverage liquidations have been exaggerated as causes of the sell-off; spot selling from Bitfinex and genuine profit-taking are primary drivers.
Market & price signals
— Bitcoin moved from $69K (all-time high ~7–10 days prior) to below $60K during the correction discussed. Will Clemente identifies $53K as the bear market floor and $1 trillion market cap threshold; daily closes above $53K preserve bull market structure. Short-term holder cost basis sits near $53K support. MVRVZ score (volatility-adjusted market-cap-to-realized-cap ratio) remains in healthy mid-range territory, far below the overheated zones seen in 2013 and 2017. Dormancy flow metric hovers in neutral area, still below halfway to exuberant levels. On-chain data suggests continued runway before any euphoric signature emerges. Will's proprietary model suggests a top of ~$125K based on mean reversion of realized price, though timing is uncertain.
Actionable insights
— Current price weakness should be viewed as a normal correction within an intact bull market; multiple on-chain behavioral metrics (SOPR, realized price, long-term holder net position, supply shock oscillator) confirm bull structure has not broken and support remains near $53K.
— Monitor behavioral signals rather than specific timing or price targets: watch for prolonged decline in the liquid supply shock oscillator (1–2 weeks) and bearish divergence in its RSI as caution signals; long-term holder distribution is normal and does not signal immediate peak.
— Scale into weakness on daily closes above $53K; fear greed index deep in fear zone is historically a bullish setup for accumulation, with extended bull run likely lasting into early 2022 given consensus expects a December top.
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