#1266 Will Clemente | Bitcoin Bear Market Is Over. Here Is Proof.
10/26/2023 · 22 min · transcript via mlx
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Key topics
— Bitcoin dominance is rising aggressively as it outperforms other crypto assets, driven by a combination of ETF anticipation, macro uncertainty, and natural market cycle dynamics.
— Bitcoin has reclaimed critical technical levels including the 200-week and 200-day moving averages, as well as the $30K level where major 2022 collapses occurred (Three Arrows, Luna, FTX).
— The Bitcoin halving in 2024 will result in Bitcoin achieving a higher stock-to-flow ratio than gold, creating a quantifiable narrative for the market.
— Long-term holder supply has reached an all-time high at over 76% of circulating supply, indicating strong believer conviction and tight supply conditions.
— The MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) ratio remains far from the red zone of overheating, suggesting Bitcoin is still in an underheated valuation state despite recent price strength.
— Traditional institutional participation via CME futures has surged, with CME open interest reaching an all-time high percentage of total Bitcoin futures open interest.
Market & price signals
— Bitcoin price has reclaimed the $30K level and broken above the 200-week and 200-day moving averages. MVRV ratio indicates the market remains underheated and far from the red-zone extremities that typically mark bull-market tops. Over 600,000 more Bitcoin haven't moved in 10+ years than currently sit on exchanges, suggesting tight supply. CME futures volume reached $6 billion on a single day in late 2023—the highest daily volume of the year, with CME open interest now comprising roughly 25–26% of all Bitcoin futures open interest (an all-time high). Galaxy Digital estimates $35 billion in ETF inflows within the first year and $75 billion over two to three years post-approval.
Actionable insights
— Monitor MVRV ratio and Bitcoin dominance as primary valuation gauges; buying typically occurs when the ratio enters the green zone (below realized price), and selling pressure increases when the ratio approaches the red zone (well above realized price).
— Expect potential short-term sell-the-news volatility if a spot Bitcoin ETF is approved, but medium-to-long-term adoption will likely be positive as it unlocks capital from institutions unable or unwilling to self-custody; track institutional flows via CME data rather than crypto exchange volume alone.
— Prepare for the 2024 halving narrative around Bitcoin achieving a higher stock-to-flow ratio than gold; this quantifiable scarcity metric may drive a new phase of adoption as traditional financial advisors and wealth managers push the asset to their clients.
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