#645 Did The Bears Win This Round?! w/ Will Clemente
8/28/2021 · 32 min · transcript via mlx
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Key topics
— Long-term Bitcoin holders have reached an all-time high of 67.7% of circulating supply (84.5% of adjusted supply), with strong accumulation behavior showing coins aging into longer holding periods.
— Exchange inflows reversed after a mid-week spike, with Coinbase seeing a net 30,000 BTC outflow while Binance balances continue rising, suggesting East-West trading dynamics.
— Short-term price concerns emerged mid-week around the failed $50K breakout, but on-chain metrics recovered, with Will now leaning neutral-to-bullish over the next 1–2 weeks.
— Futures leverage remains mild; open interest to market cap ratio and leverage ratios are well below historical extremes, limiting near-term squeeze risk from derivatives.
— Transaction volumes remain low relative to price moves, with no significant uptick in on-chain activity despite price appreciation—a metric Worth monitoring for confirmation of sustained bull momentum.
— Will targets $60K as a bull market threshold and $95K as a potential next model target, contingent on breaking through the $1 trillion market cap level.
Market & price signals
— Bitcoin rejected $50K mid-week, dipping to ~$46,300 before recovering. Will notes that Jay Powell's recent comments provided liquidity support. SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) bounced off 1.0 twice in two weeks, indicating market participants are unwilling to sell at a loss. Realized losses remain subdued relative to realized profits, suggesting overhead supply (coins from $50–60K range) has not yet come onto the market. 86% of addresses are now in profit, up from 69% at lows. Miner profitability declined slightly post-difficulty adjustment but remains well above 2-month lows, making further miner accumulation likely. Stablecoin-margined futures have risen since May 19th, a shift Will views as structurally bullish because short-squeezers are now more vulnerable.
Actionable insights
— Wait for on-chain data confirmation over 3–7 day windows rather than trading intraday noise; Will intentionally delayed bearish calls from Tuesday until Friday after observing trend persistence and heuristic updates.
— Monitor transaction volume and active address growth as price approaches key resistance levels ($50K, $1T market cap); sustained bull runs historically pair price appreciation with network activity, and the current "ghost town" activity is an exception worth validating before aggressive positioning.
— Stage capital allocation around $60K (bull market threshold per Will's model) where earlier cycle overhead supply clears and futures leverage likely re-accelerates, positioning for potential $95K target.
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