#580: Will Clemente on the Re-Accumulation Phase Is Almost Over

— Bitcoin price action remained ranged between $31K–$37K this week, with a breakdown from a triangle pattern that quickly reversed, showing strong bounces off range lows and improved reaction to news sentiment.

— Short-term holders have exhausted selling pressure while long-term holders are aggressively accumulating, marking a potential shift toward the end of the reaccumulation phase.

— SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) formed a bullish divergence with higher lows in the oscillator despite lower lows in price, suggesting improved accumulation dynamics.

— Miners, particularly Chinese pools including Poolin, have begun selling modest amounts (roughly 5,000 BTC) amid China regulatory pressure, likely to relocate operations or secure capital.

— Futures open interest spiked on downside moves, triggering shorts that were liquidated on the sharp reversal, demonstrating how Bitcoin tends to move against crowded positioning.

— Plan B's stock-to-flow model is at its largest historical deflection to the downside but remains within the lower band; the recent bounce suggests potential validation if price recovers in coming weeks.

— Monitor the completion of the reaccumulation phase: if long-term holders continue accumulating at elevated rates and illiquid supply remains green, a breakout from the current consolidation range is increasingly likely in the near term.

— Watch for volatility expansion when Bitcoin breaks out of its range, as futures open interest and funding rates will likely spike again—use this as a confirmation signal for stronger directional moves rather than relying on range-bound metrics alone.

— Use SOPR's 1.0 threshold as a key support level; if Bitcoin retests this level, it would indicate healthy accumulation dynamics rather than panic selling, consistent with bull market behavior.