#1523 Jordi Visser | Bitcoin Holds Strong As Stocks CRASH
4/5/2025 · 43 min · transcript via mlx
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Key topics
— Tariffs announced by Trump are creating significant market volatility, with stocks falling 10%+ year-to-date and recession odds spiking to 60%, but underlying economic fundamentals (job creation, income growth) remain solid and suggest a recession is unlikely.
— The 10-year Treasury yield has fallen below 4% as markets price in Fed rate cuts, which aligns with the administration's stated goal of achieving 3% real GDP growth alongside lower rates.
— Small businesses and suppliers face severe margin pressure from tariffs and cannot absorb costs like large retailers (Walmart, Ford) can, suggesting selective pain across the economy rather than broad recession.
— Bitcoin is outperforming equities during this downturn because it operates outside the tariff system and benefits from a narrative shift toward digital cross-border transactions and decentralized trade settlement.
— A genuine recession requires both significant job losses (unemployment rising above 7%) and negative nominal GDP; current data shows neither, suggesting this is a severe correction rather than recession.
— All-time highs in stocks and Bitcoin are likely before year-end, with strongest gains expected in summer once tariff negotiations are resolved and the Fed cuts rates.
Market & price signals
— S&P 500 is down 0% year-over-year as of the conversation (indicating unchanged from one year prior), suggesting 50% recession probability built in; it could fall to $4,700 (8% lower) if tariff tensions escalate further, but a bottom is expected between $4,700–$5,200. Bitcoin outperformed the Mag7 by 7 percentage points year-to-date (Bitcoin down 13%, Mag7 down 20%). The 10-year Treasury yield has fallen below 4% target. Oil has fallen from $72 to $61.50, signaling deflation. Jobless claims remain unchanged from early 2022 levels (220,000+). Wage growth and income remain positive. MicroStrategy is up 60% over six months and was trading up $6 pre-market (unchanged for the year). Gold continues to hit all-time highs. The Mag7 have underperformed Bitcoin over the past two years by more than 25%.
Actionable insights
— Use market panics as buying opportunities: historical analysis shows that when recession odds reach 50%, subsequent returns are strongly positive; establish "bids" below current market levels for quality assets (Bitcoin, stocks) and deploy capital during the correction rather than waiting for perfect timing.
— Monitor tariff negotiation progress and Fed policy signals: rate cuts are nearly fully priced in for June 2025; stock and Bitcoin bottoms will occur before the Fed cuts, so watch for de-escalation or deal announcements to front-run the rally.
— Recognize structural regime shift favoring Bitcoin and digital economy: tariffs make traditional cross-border trade friction untenable, accelerating adoption of stablecoins and blockchain-based settlement; younger investors already priced this in, but traditional portfolio holders should rebalance accordingly.
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