Will Fed Rate Cuts & AI Send Bitcoin Flying? | Jordi Visser

— The Treasury's conflicting signals on Bitcoin purchases reflect market overreaction driven by algo trading and quant strategies, with Bitcoin volatility declining despite headline noise.

— A reflationary boom is underway globally, supported by 88 central bank rate cuts this year, rising earnings (11% YoY for S&P 500 despite weak data), and implicit inflation target increases to ~3%.

— AI productivity gains are not captured in traditional economic data (GDP, jobs, inflation); a shadow digital-worker economy exists that measures miss entirely.

— The Federal Reserve is likely to cut rates in September despite core CPI above 3%, signaling an implicit policy shift toward accepting higher inflation alongside AI-driven profit margin expansion.

— Gold revaluation alongside a potential US-China accord is plausible if tariff courts rule against the government, forcing debt and deficit resolution through reflation or debasement.

— Government involvement in Intel and AI chip supply chains reflects an AI arms race comparable to the Manhattan Project; semiconductor and power infrastructure are critical bottlenecks.

— S&P 500, DAX, FTSE, Shanghai Composite, Nikkei, and global indices all hit or approach all-time highs this week despite tariff uncertainty.

— Bank stocks (BKX) near new highs, consistent with reflationary thesis; hyperscalers (MAG7) posted 26% earnings growth vs. 4% for the rest of S&P 500.

— Bitcoin's realized volatility has compressed to low 30s from high 40s; stable after initial reaction to Treasury comments.

— Long-end rates unlikely to spike significantly if yield curve control is deployed; focus on Fed's September 25bp rate cut now nearly fully priced in.

— Accumulate energy and power-related positions if you believe in imminent reflationary scenario, PMI inflection, and AI infrastructure buildout; this is the critical bottleneck for the next 1–2 years.

— Look beyond mega-cap AI beneficiaries to identify mid-market and smaller companies pursuing digital transformation and AI adoption; the "rising tide" phase is approaching as profit margins expand across industries, not just tech.

— Monitor tariff court rulings (currently progressing toward Supreme Court) as a major trigger for currency and asset repricing; a loss could force negotiated gold revaluation or broader monetary reset talks.