#1550 Jordi Visser | If You Miss This Bitcoin Run, Don’t Say You Weren’t Told
5/17/2025 · 43 min · transcript via mlx
Tags
Key topics
— Policy uncertainty around tariffs has decreased dramatically, removing a major bearish catalyst and allowing markets to recover sharply after April lows.
— Inflation expectations remain politicized and unreliable; Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey shows massive partisan divergence, suggesting traditional economic data may be less trustworthy than alternative frameworks.
— AI-driven economy is reshaping competitive dynamics: startups using AI agents and code generation tools are displacing established enterprises much faster than historical precedent.
— Federal spending through CapEx ($300B annually) for AI infrastructure creates accounting arbitrage—revenues count immediately while depreciation spreads costs over 10 years, inflating profit margins.
— Bitcoin adoption accelerating among institutions and governments; rallied faster than stocks during correction, suggesting its role as uncorrelated portfolio hedge is gaining credibility.
— Second-half 2025 risks center on rising rates (now near 20-year highs) and fiscal deficits; mortgage spreads extremely elevated, likely triggering policy intervention on housing.
Market & price signals
— Bitcoin rallied from $75,000 to $103,000–$104,000, then corrected ~$5,000; recovered before stock market during April dip, signaling growing institutional recognition as portfolio diversifier. S&P 500 recovered to near all-time highs after April sell-off; earnings growth and AI CapEx support further upside, though 10-year Treasury yields near 5% and mortgage spreads remain historically wide. Pension funds now fully funded due to recent equity and rate moves; likely to rotate into bonds if yields reach 4.8%–4.85%, potentially creating headwind later in year. Dollar largely unchanged despite tariff resolution; Asian repatriation of bond capital expected to put continued upward pressure on yields.
Actionable insights
— AI disruption accelerating: Companies like Cursor (reportedly at $300M ARR), Lovable ($50M ARR in six months), and Perplexity are outcompeting incumbents at unprecedented speed; retail investors consistently buying dips while institutions hedge—positioning smaller, nimbler AI-native businesses may offer better risk-reward than mega-cap concentration.
— Rate environment inflection point ahead: Monitor 10-year yields approaching 4.8%–4.85%; if breached, expect pension fund bond rotation and potential policy intervention on mortgage spreads, which could trigger volatility. Dollar weakness likely gradual but structural given deficit outlook.
— Recession narrative disconnected from reality: Consumption remains robust (top 10% driving 50% of spending; stock market unchanged = no demand shock); higher rates actually *favor* high-margin AI companies squeezing out undercapitalized competitors. Betting against stocks = betting against AI acceleration—a multi-year structural tailwind.
Episode sponsorships
Paid placements mentioned in this episode. BTC Pods is not sponsored by or affiliated with these advertisers. Links are included so you can find offers mentioned on the show.
— Figure Markets is where crypto meets real-world finance. Figure Markets offers crypto-backed loans at up to 75% loan-to-value ratio starting as low as 12.5% interest with no credit checks or prepayment penalties, plus investment yields ranging from 3.85% to 6.85% APY backed by real-world assets. Figure is a subsidiary of Figure, the largest non-bank HELOC lender in the US founded by Mike Cagney. Visit figure.com/pomp to sign up and earn a $50 deposit and trading bonus.
— Maple Finance is where real money meets real yield, managing over $1.5 billion with secure lending, Bitcoin yield, and premium DeFi assets like syrupUSDC. Visit maple.finance to get started today.