#720 Is The Bitcoin Bottom In?! w/ Will Clemente

— Bitcoin price broke to $69,000 (ATH) then reversed, following a pattern where the market grabs liquidity from breakout traders before reversing direction; this happened for the fourth consecutive time.

— On-chain metrics show long-term holders beginning to distribute (sell) Bitcoin, which is normal bull market behavior as they scale out; this does not signal the end of the bull run but marks the transition phase.

— The entity-adjusted SOPR metric shows Bitcoin trading above the 1.0 neutral threshold with no bearish divergence yet; a correction to $51–53K would maintain bullish structure if it stays above the green support zone.

— Realized price distribution reveals 18.36% of Bitcoin's supply has moved above the $1 trillion market cap threshold, confirming Bitcoin's maturation as a macro asset.

— Short-term holder cost basis remains below long-term holder realized price, indicating weak hands have not yet dominated; exuberance has not peaked and would show on-chain when short-term holders overpay long-term holders.

— Mining hash power has returned aggressively post-China ban with eight consecutive positive difficulty adjustments, demonstrating network resilience and decentralization.

— Monitor the long-term holder supply shock ratio within its descending wedge for a reversal signal; when it tags the upper trendline, caution increases; when it tags the lower trendline, bottoms form (last tested ~October 2021).

— Watch for a sustained uptick in transaction fees and a spike in network activity as a topping signal; low fees now are benign because speculators are absent, but a major fee blow-off spike would indicate mania and market froth.

— Use the short-term holder cost basis metric to gauge when weak hands dominate: if STH realized price overshoots LTH realized price significantly, exuberance is peaking and a correction is near; today this has not occurred.