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All In On Bitcoin | The Hurdle Rate Podcast LIVE | Ep. 76

9/29/2026 · 28 min · transcript via mlx

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Key topics

— One year retrospective on the Semler-Strive acquisition at the Bitcoin Treasuries Conference, which merged two companies' ~11,000 Bitcoin combined and enabled SEDA's launch.

— Game theory behind daily dividend design: SEDA pays equal Monday–Friday dividends (no weekend accrual) to optimize algorithmic volume during U.S. trading hours, unlike Strategy's competing product.

— Strategy's separate strategy focuses on becoming the world's largest company; Strive pursues higher amplification ratios within a smaller scale, positioning them as complementary rather than fiercely competitive.

— Amplification ratio, not dividend yield or Sharpe ratio, drives ~90% of total returns in a bull market; Strive targets 60–70% amplification as Bitcoin appreciates.

— Balance sheet composition of Bitcoin and cash provides optionality to transform collateral into new financial structures (e.g., SEDA as preferred equity) without requiring derivatives trading that caps upside.

— Future evolution of Bitcoin balance sheet companies: multifaceted collateral design, cash position management, and scale enabling larger institutional allocation and market power.

Market & price signals

— Matt Cole projects Bitcoin to reach approximately $500,000 by end of 2030, representing roughly 50% annualized returns with a band of 30–70%. Bitcoin is currently near its 200-week moving average and viewed as "really cheap." Strive uses the 200-week moving average and stress tests (10%, 20%, 30% below it) to underwrite amplification risk and guide downside protection. Daily dividend structures and institutional capital flow indicate growing institutional confidence in Bitcoin collateral products. SEDA was initially sized at $125 million but raised at $250 million; follow-on offerings were oversubscribed, signaling institutional appetite for scale.

Actionable insights

— Understand the structural differences between SEDA and Strategy's daily dividend products: both pay daily but differ in weekend accrual policy and issuer strategy; trading arbitrage between instruments may increase market liquidity and offer tactical opportunities.

— Amplification ratios matter far more than dividend yield in bull markets: if Bitcoin does 50% annually through 2030, every 10% increase in amplification likely outweighs a 1–2% change in dividend cost, making high-amplification structures core to total return.

— Scale and trust are non-negotiable: Strive's ability to increase amplification from 30% (IPO) to 50–60% (current) hinged entirely on executing during bear market; institutional investors reward proven execution with larger allocations, directly increasing company power and optionality.

Episode sponsorships

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