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#713 Bitcoin Whales Are Taking MAJOR Gains w/ Will Clemente

11/6/2021 · 38 min · transcript via mlx

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Key topics

— Bitcoin volatility squeeze analysis using Bollinger Bands and WIC high indicators to identify periods of price consolidation before directional expansion.

— Perpetual futures funding rates have reset after Fed tapering announcement but remain positive, with no negative funding for over a month—a cautionary sign suggesting eventual flush downward.

— Liquidation clustering just below the $60K support level shows concentrated long positions vulnerable to cascade liquidation if price breaks below with volume.

— Long-term holder distribution into bull market strength is natural and healthy behavior, indicating new outside capital entering the market rather than capitulation.

— Illiquid supply shock ratio climbing to 2017 highs and early 2021 levels, signaling supply is being locked up by holders who move less than 25% of their holdings.

— Short-term holder cost basis relative to long-term holders remains a key metric for identifying market exuberance or euphoria before potential pullbacks.

Market & price signals

— Bitcoin consolidating in a volatility squeeze between Bollinger Bands around the $60K level. Strong order book confluence of bids at $60K across multiple exchanges, referred to as "the great wall of $60K." Spent output profit ratio (SOPR) remains above the 1.0 bullish threshold with 14-day moving average, similar to patterns seen in previous bull market corrections. Short-term holder profit/loss ratio similarly holding above the 1.0 level. Illiquid supply shock ratio at highest level since late 2017 and early 2021, reflecting continued supply accumulation by long-term holders. Whale activity showing distribution over recent weeks but renewed accumulation over the last month and a half, ranging holdings. Retail and small holder Bitcoin accumulation continues steadily upward trend; supply distribution improving over time toward smaller holders.

Actionable insights

— Monitor the $60K level closely for volume: a high-volume break below could trigger cascade liquidations of the concentrated long positions clustered just beneath, while a low-volume move down would likely reverse.

— Watch for funding rate flush into negative territory over coming weeks—positive funding hasn't reset since early November, and historical patterns show eventual reversion is likely; this acts as a cautionary signal for potential volatility expansion.

— Use SOPR and short-term holder cost basis in confluence: watch for SOPR bouncing off the 1.0 threshold or short-term realized price spiking relative to long-term holders as signals of market exuberance before distribution phases.

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