Is The Fed Lying About Inflation? | James Lavish

— Federal Reserve chair Kevin Warsh's early months in office and potential shift toward alternative inflation measures (trimmed mean PCE) rather than traditional CPI, which could allow headline inflation to run hotter without admission.

— Credit card delinquencies have reached 2008 levels while consumers remain deeply dependent on debt, signaling economic fragility beneath strong headline numbers.

— The Fed's balance sheet is quietly expanding through treasury buybacks and "QE light"—reinvestment of mortgage-backed security maturities into treasuries—rather than obvious quantitative easing.

— AI's potential disinflationary effect is being viewed by policymakers as a possible escape valve, though the path from productivity gains to debt resolution remains mathematically unclear.

— A K-shaped economy is widening: asset holders and high-agency individuals are thriving while the broader middle and lower-income cohorts rely increasingly on leverage.

— Bitcoin's 50% drawdown in 2025 was muted compared to prior cycles due to lack of a blow-off top; power law models suggest long-term price targets around $180K–$200K by end of 2027.

— Watch the Fed's balance sheet expansion, not just the fed funds rate. Quiet reinvestment of MBS maturities and treasury buybacks signal QE-light, which is inflationary and debasement—a signal to increase exposure to sound money trades (Bitcoin, gold) when obvious.

— Monitor whether the Fed removes the supplementary leverage ratio rules on treasuries or launches new acronymed programs to support bond markets. Such moves would signal imminent inflation and are early warning signs to shift into hard assets before broad-based announcement.

— Real inflation is running hotter than reported (5–9% on groceries, insurance, childcare, energy). Compare your own bills year-over-year. The official narrative will allow this to persist quietly to inflate away debt obligations; Bitcoin's long-term value proposition remains intact in this environment.