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James Lavish
Is The Fed Lying About Inflation? | James Lavish
- Federal Reserve chair Kevin Warsh's early months in office and potential shift toward alternative inflation measures (trimmed mean PCE) rather than traditional CPI, which could allow headline inflation to run hotter without admission. - Credit card delinquencies have reached 2008 levels while consumers remain deeply dependent on debt, signaling economic fragility beneath strong headline numbers. - The Fed's balance sheet is quietly expanding through treasury buybacks and "QE light"—reinvestment of mortgage-backed security maturities into treasuries—rather than obvious quantitative easing. - AI's potential disinflationary effect is being viewed by policymakers as a possible escape valve, though the path from productivity gains to debt resolution remains mathematically unclear. - A K-shaped economy is widening: asset holders and high-agency individuals are thriving while the broader middle and lower-income cohorts rely increasingly on leverage. - Bitcoin's 50% drawdown in 2025 was muted compared to prior cycles due to lack of a blow-off top; power law models suggest long-term price targets around $180K–$200K by end of 2027.
Lavish vs Doomberg: The Shocking Risks in Oil & MicroStrategy No One Else Sees
- Oil market dysfunction: Unexpectedly low crude prices (~$100/barrel) despite Middle East conflict, explained by massive global oversupply, China's large inventory drawdown, and government policy discouraging profitable long energy trades. - K-shaped economy and consumer disconnect: Stock market at all-time highs while Michigan consumer sentiment hits record lows (48.2) and auto/credit card delinquencies reach all-time highs; wage earners being eroded by real inflation exceeding official CPI. - Natural gas advantage for US manufacturing and AI: North America's cheap, abundant natural gas (sub-$3/MMBtu) powers AI data centers and provides structural economic advantage; shale revolution created glut that's being utilized for Bitcoin mining and hyperscaler infrastructure. - Michael Saylor and MicroStrategy capital structure risk: Concentrated Bitcoin holder faces multi-billion debt refinancing (converts due 2028–2029); debate over whether equity dilution through stock issuance to service preferred dividends poses meaningful downside risk to MSTR common holders. - Geopolitical shift and dollar hegemony: UAE's exit from OPEC+ signals structural realignment; US–China competition reshaping Middle East alliances; long-term dollar debasement expected to benefit hard assets (gold, silver, Bitcoin, equities). - Bitcoin as risk asset: Discussed as underperforming relative to energy/macro backdrop; concerns about Saylor's concentration as potential overhang versus conviction that Bitcoin doubles/triples from current levels justifies current valuations.