#1562 Jordi Visser | Short Squeeze Incoming? Bitcoin, Iran, and the Global Power Crisis

— Israel's attack on Iran poses limited near-term market impact; geopolitical conflicts historically fade unless sustained and affecting core economics (oil price durability key indicator).

— Oracle's earnings reveal "insatiable" AI demand with one customer requesting all global capacity; token demand up 50x year-over-year, confirming long-term power/energy bottleneck for AI scaling.

— Inflation data came in weaker than expected across multiple metrics (CPI, PPI), signaling potential Fed rate cuts in September despite some tariff pass-through in goods.

— U.S.–China trade friction entering "separation" phase (mediation-like) where both nations reduce supply-chain dependency; rare earth minerals and chip access remain unresolved but moving toward equilibrium.

— Bitcoin volatility compressed to ~40, creating potential for painful short squeeze as price pins around $105K–$110K; Michael Saylor and others selling vol suggests gamma trap.

— Ethereum and Solana trapped as "zombie unicorns" (overvalued post-Zerp private companies); stablecoin explosive growth will eventually unlock rotation into layer-1s and infrastructure.

— Oil rallied from $55 WTI to above $73 following Iran attack; sustained pricing above $100+ for three months required to impact global economy materially.

— Bitcoin trading over $100K for 30–40 days; 30-day realized volatility dropped below 40 (vs. ~20 for gold), indicating gamma pinning at $105K–$110K strikes on Deribit.

— Nasdaq-100 and S&P 500 heading to all-time highs absent major oil shock; AI-driven profit-margin expansion offsetting macro recession fears for bottom 50% of earners.

— Ethereum broke above 200-day moving average this week; Solana remains suppressed pending stablecoin volume explosion and rotation from zombie-unicorn overhang.

— Initial jobless claims rose again; continuing claims elevated; labor market softening while government jobs show near-zero growth (excluding leisure, hospitality, healthcare).

— Focus portfolio on power and energy convergence (oil, gas utilities, Exxon, Chevron as gas-plant operators, rare-earth minerals) where AI demand shock meets geopolitical premium; energy market underpriced for required infrastructure build-out.

— Use LLM tools (Perplexity for finance, ChatGPT) to convert earnings transcripts and real-time commentary into proprietary data; Visser reports Perplexity now replaces 60% of Bloomberg usage for hedge-fund intelligence.

— Expect Bitcoin squeeze when vol compression breaks; avoid FOMO buying at $150K; patient positioning now captures gamma unwind pain for short-vol sellers; stablecoin growth will eventually unlock altcoin rotation and larger BTC move.