Guest
Adam Livingston
Is Michael Saylor Trapped? STRC Explained | Adam Livingston
- MicroStrategy's preferred stock (STRC) trading $12 below par ($88 vs $100), driven by market demand for 13%+ yield compensation rather than structural breakdown. - Par stability mechanic: Strategy raises dividends if VWAP falls below threshold; shares issued when stock exceeds par, creating a market-stabilizing feature. - Capital structure health improved since 2022: MSTR shareholders now have 145,000 sats per share residual Bitcoin exposure (vs. negative 14,400 in November 2022 bottom). - Dividend coverage remains strong: Strategy raising $18x daily dividend obligations year-to-date; convertible debt paydown was strategic misstep but not fatal. - Digital credit narrative: Treasury companies now compete for retail flows; STRC has 80% retail ownership, with 13% yield on STRC competing against daily dividends on SATA (Strife). - Bitcoin bear market as buying opportunity: Multiple oversold indicators (RSI, gold ratio, power law deviation) suggest proximity to bottom; sentiment worst on record—traditionally a contrarian buy signal.
Strategy Sells Bitcoin, so what? w/ Adam Livingston | True North Podcast | Ep. 69
- Terminology & taxonomy: The hosts defend calling these instruments "digital credit"—not strictly debt, but equity analyzed through credit concepts that have existed for centuries. The term fits the definition of "provision of money/services with expectation of future payment." - STRC price volatility & FUD: STRC traded down to $94.70 from $99.84 post-record date, triggering fears of "death spirals." The hosts show this is normal dividend-harvesting behavior; volume spikes 5–6× before record dates and trails off after, creating predictable liquidity windows. - Balance sheet health & capital raising: Microstrategy has raised $143 million per trading day in 2026 and holds 843,000 Bitcoin with no debt. Monthly dividend obligation (~$100M) is only 0.19% of May's trading volume; annual obligation is 0.02% of estimated Bitcoin trading volume (~$7.3 trillion/year). - Bitcoin sales math: If forced to sell Bitcoin to cover dividends at current Bitcoin price, Microstrategy would sell only 1,535 BTC/month (3.1% of stack annually)—an infinitesimal portion of Bitcoin's daily trading volume. Raising rates to 12.5% or 13% adds only $26M/year. - Residual value & incentive structures: Critics claiming MSTR common equity trades to zero ignore call-option dynamics and liquidity. Even at severely bearish Bitcoin prices (never seen in history), incentives remain for buyback and dividend payment. - DeFi and digital credit future: Saturn and Apex protocols are building on top of STRC/SEDA, currently ~5% of issuance. Daily dividends (starting in 13 days at Strive) will unlock new use cases and DeFi composability.
What is Credit w/ special guest Adam Livingston | True North Podcast | Ep. 41
- MSTR holds 640,031 Bitcoin with an 18.9% leverage ratio (or 15% adjusted for convertible debt); Bitcoin would need to drop 81% for assets to fall below liabilities, representing extremely low tail risk. - Credit systems are fundamental to economic function, spanning personal (credit cards, mortgages, auto loans) to corporate (bonds, preferred equity) and enabling productive capital formation. - Bitcoin as collateral is vastly superior to traditional assets: it requires no maintenance, has zero carrying costs, and is infinitely liquid 24/7/365—yet lending terms remain poor (25% liquidation haircuts are typical). - Corporate bond markets have shifted toward higher-risk instruments since 2015, with junk bonds and low-quality credit increasing while AAA-rated bonds decline, signaling rising systemic credit risk. - Disruption risk is severely underpriced in 30+ year corporate bonds; technology acceleration makes long-duration fixed-income commitments increasingly dangerous (Ford, Target, retail sector examples). - Bitcoin treasury companies like Strategy are issuing investment-grade credit instruments backed by the world's best collateral—a market structure that has never existed before.