What is Credit w/ special guest Adam Livingston | True North Podcast | Ep. 41

— MSTR holds 640,031 Bitcoin with an 18.9% leverage ratio (or 15% adjusted for convertible debt); Bitcoin would need to drop 81% for assets to fall below liabilities, representing extremely low tail risk.

— Credit systems are fundamental to economic function, spanning personal (credit cards, mortgages, auto loans) to corporate (bonds, preferred equity) and enabling productive capital formation.

— Bitcoin as collateral is vastly superior to traditional assets: it requires no maintenance, has zero carrying costs, and is infinitely liquid 24/7/365—yet lending terms remain poor (25% liquidation haircuts are typical).

— Corporate bond markets have shifted toward higher-risk instruments since 2015, with junk bonds and low-quality credit increasing while AAA-rated bonds decline, signaling rising systemic credit risk.

— Disruption risk is severely underpriced in 30+ year corporate bonds; technology acceleration makes long-duration fixed-income commitments increasingly dangerous (Ford, Target, retail sector examples).

— Bitcoin treasury companies like Strategy are issuing investment-grade credit instruments backed by the world's best collateral—a market structure that has never existed before.

— Entry timing matters despite directional bullish thesis: Treasury company shares now trade at 0.7–0.9× mNAV with sentiment severely depressed; mathematically de-risked positions offer asymmetric upside if Bitcoin rallies in Q4, but only if you've done diligence to rule out cash burn or insolvency.

— Leverage positioning is a critical differentiator: Companies trading sub-mNAV and carrying leverage (especially convertible debt at low rates) stand to outperform massively during a Bitcoin bull run; Strategy is transitioning from equity to preferred issuance to raise leverage and prepare for the most explosive part of the cycle.

— Bitcoin lending terms are currently terrible but set to compress: At 7.5% on Coinbase and 16–18% elsewhere, rates remain loan-shark-level; as custody improves and institutional adoption widens, cost of capital for Bitcoin holders will plummet—positioning Bitcoin holders as future credit prime.