BTC Sessions
Fed Regime Change, Bitcoin Cycles, AI’s Real Impact | Jeff Ross, Joe Carlasare, HODL
- The Federal Reserve has removed forward guidance and adopted a more secretive policy approach similar to Alan Greenspan's era, signaling a shift toward fiscal dominance where Treasury spending becomes the primary economic driver.
- Three dominant currency blocs are likely to form globally: the US dollar system, a China-backed gold standard, and Bitcoin as a decentralized contingency.
- Bitcoin treasury companies like MicroStrategy have underperformed Bitcoin by 60% since November 2024; the recent small Bitcoin sale was a deliberate narrative violation to signal flexibility with lenders.
- Bitcoin cycles appear to be weakening or dead as a predictable pattern; current market moves differ significantly from past cycles, with less volatile blow-off tops and more gradual drawdowns.
- AI adoption remains in early stages with low actual usage rates outside tech circles; job displacement concerns are overstated, as AI tools create new categories of employment (cybersecurity, system architecture).
- The leverage-to-OG-status narrative is false; using leveraged MSTR positions has destroyed retail portfolios (one 2X leveraged ETF fell from $780 to $9), while plain Bitcoin accumulation near the 200-week moving average has historically rewarded holders.