Fed Regime Change, Bitcoin Cycles, AI’s Real Impact | Jeff Ross, Joe Carlasare, HODL

— The Federal Reserve has removed forward guidance and adopted a more secretive policy approach similar to Alan Greenspan's era, signaling a shift toward fiscal dominance where Treasury spending becomes the primary economic driver.

— Three dominant currency blocs are likely to form globally: the US dollar system, a China-backed gold standard, and Bitcoin as a decentralized contingency.

— Bitcoin treasury companies like MicroStrategy have underperformed Bitcoin by 60% since November 2024; the recent small Bitcoin sale was a deliberate narrative violation to signal flexibility with lenders.

— Bitcoin cycles appear to be weakening or dead as a predictable pattern; current market moves differ significantly from past cycles, with less volatile blow-off tops and more gradual drawdowns.

— AI adoption remains in early stages with low actual usage rates outside tech circles; job displacement concerns are overstated, as AI tools create new categories of employment (cybersecurity, system architecture).

— The leverage-to-OG-status narrative is false; using leveraged MSTR positions has destroyed retail portfolios (one 2X leveraged ETF fell from $780 to $9), while plain Bitcoin accumulation near the 200-week moving average has historically rewarded holders.

— Buy Bitcoin near or below the 200-week moving average; historically this entry point has never resulted in regret. The current range around $59K–$60K qualifies as a low-risk accumulation zone.

— Avoid leverage as a shortcut to early-adopter status. Leveraged products like 2X or 3X long MSTR ETFs have collapsed catastrophically; plain Bitcoin stacking is the proven wealth-building strategy.

— Expect a rotation from semiconductors and AI stocks into hard assets (copper, steel, rare earths) and Bitcoin in the second half of 2026; position accordingly rather than chasing fading semiconductor momentum.