Guest
John Haar
John Haar Returns: Why the Fed Must Talk Tough While It Inflates
- Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole speech offered no material change in policy direction; the Fed must rhetorically commit to inflation control while pursuing long-run financial repression through real negative rates and growth. - The Treasury buyback announcement signals two constraints: a 30-year yield near 5.3% is concerning policymakers, and the Fed has never materially reduced long-dated Treasury holdings, suggesting insufficient natural demand for government debt. - Bitcoin's June low of $58,000 likely marks the cycle bottom; the 50-week moving average near $82,000 and Glassnode's 1.05 million BTC cost basis wall between $83–86K represent the next major resistance for declaring a new bull market. - The debasement trade (gold and Bitcoin) is re-entering focus after seven months of weakness, with both GLD and IBIT in the top ten most-traded ETFs and Bitcoin-to-gold ratio breaking its year-long downtrend. - Bitcoin's long correlation with software stocks (IGV) decoupled sharply in June; Bitcoin should trade as a protocol of value like gold, not as a technology equity. - Treasury ETF GOVT returned negative 18% inflation-adjusted over 15 years while government debt supply expands, signaling the end of Treasuries as the default long-term store of value.
The Data Says Bitcoin’s Bottom Is Already In | Mitchell Askew & John Haar
- Mitchell Askew and John Haar from BlockWare Solutions assess whether Bitcoin's price bottom is already in, citing 95% confidence that further 75% drawdowns are unlikely. - Four main catalysts for the 50% drawdown: OG whale selling (especially around $100K psychological level), miners pivoting capital to AI, the self-fulfilling four-year cycle effect, and AI sucking liquidity away from risk assets. - Global M2 (money supply) at all-time highs while Bitcoin is down 50%—a historic disconnect suggesting capital will eventually rotate back from AI into Bitcoin. - On-chain metrics (whale transfers, realized capital drawdowns, cost basis underwater) all point to capitulation being nearly exhausted; supply exhaustion visible across multiple indicators. - Strategy and MetaPlanet treasury companies discussed: both expected to survive, but MNAV multiples unlikely to return to 2–3x peaks; MetaPlanet better positioned due to Japanese market dynamics and newly acquired securities license. - Bitcoin mining evolution: major operators shifting to AI data center operations; raised question of whether treasury companies, mining stocks, and spot ETFs will coexist or consolidate in mature cycle.