The Data Says Bitcoin’s Bottom Is Already In | Mitchell Askew & John Haar
8/7/2026 · 88 min · transcript via whisper
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Key topics
— Mitchell Askew and John Haar from BlockWare Solutions assess whether Bitcoin's price bottom is already in, citing 95% confidence that further 75% drawdowns are unlikely.
— Four main catalysts for the 50% drawdown: OG whale selling (especially around $100K psychological level), miners pivoting capital to AI, the self-fulfilling four-year cycle effect, and AI sucking liquidity away from risk assets.
— Global M2 (money supply) at all-time highs while Bitcoin is down 50%—a historic disconnect suggesting capital will eventually rotate back from AI into Bitcoin.
— On-chain metrics (whale transfers, realized capital drawdowns, cost basis underwater) all point to capitulation being nearly exhausted; supply exhaustion visible across multiple indicators.
— Strategy and MetaPlanet treasury companies discussed: both expected to survive, but MNAV multiples unlikely to return to 2–3x peaks; MetaPlanet better positioned due to Japanese market dynamics and newly acquired securities license.
— Bitcoin mining evolution: major operators shifting to AI data center operations; raised question of whether treasury companies, mining stocks, and spot ETFs will coexist or consolidate in mature cycle.
Market & price signals
— Current price range: ~65K; discussed as likely support near recent cost basis of newcomers. Potential resistance at $100K (prior all-time high). Askew projects Bitcoin back over $100K within a year if AI trade cools and capital rotates back. No expectation of 75% drawdown from current levels. Time pain likely for 3–6 months rather than sharp price decline; possible sideways action through August/September before Q4 uptrend. Global M2 over $110 trillion; Bitcoin's correlation to M2 inverted for first time in its history, creating historic buying opportunity. Realized capital drawdown only 5% versus 14–19% in prior bear markets, signaling capital exit not severe. Rate hike odds (CME Fed Funds futures) still priced at >50% by year-end despite Fed Chair Kevin Warsh signaling no need to hike; rate cut odds underpriced.
Actionable insights
— Aggressively accumulate Bitcoin now rather than waiting for lower prices; if price does drop further, deploy additional capital then. On-chain evidence (coin days destroyed, whale transfers to exchanges, UTXOs underwater) shows capitulation nearing completion and supply drying up.
— Monitor AI stock performance (Askew tracks 55 high-flyers; most down last month despite year-to-date strength) for potential capital rotation trigger; if AI retraces 30–50% while Bitcoin chart improves in Q4, expect significant rotation back into Bitcoin.
— If earning ordinary income (W2 employment), consider deploying capital into Bitcoin mining operations to access 100% bonus depreciation under US tax code section 168K, effectively offsetting income tax liability while accumulating Bitcoin.
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