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Mitchell Askew
The Data Says Bitcoin’s Bottom Is Already In | Mitchell Askew & John Haar
- Mitchell Askew and John Haar from BlockWare Solutions assess whether Bitcoin's price bottom is already in, citing 95% confidence that further 75% drawdowns are unlikely. - Four main catalysts for the 50% drawdown: OG whale selling (especially around $100K psychological level), miners pivoting capital to AI, the self-fulfilling four-year cycle effect, and AI sucking liquidity away from risk assets. - Global M2 (money supply) at all-time highs while Bitcoin is down 50%—a historic disconnect suggesting capital will eventually rotate back from AI into Bitcoin. - On-chain metrics (whale transfers, realized capital drawdowns, cost basis underwater) all point to capitulation being nearly exhausted; supply exhaustion visible across multiple indicators. - Strategy and MetaPlanet treasury companies discussed: both expected to survive, but MNAV multiples unlikely to return to 2–3x peaks; MetaPlanet better positioned due to Japanese market dynamics and newly acquired securities license. - Bitcoin mining evolution: major operators shifting to AI data center operations; raised question of whether treasury companies, mining stocks, and spot ETFs will coexist or consolidate in mature cycle.
Bitcoin Treasury Companies, Mining & The Slow Grind to $1 Million | Mitchell Askew
- Bitcoin treasury companies are bridging fiat capital into Bitcoin for institutions that cannot directly hold Bitcoin due to logistical, technical, or legal restrictions; these represent a vehicle for hyper-bitcoinization through capital that cannot buy spot Bitcoin. - Mining as a treasury play offers an alternative to direct Bitcoin purchases by producing Bitcoin at a discount through ASIC ownership while providing tax write-offs, Bitcoin-denominated cash flows, and resale optionality via marketplace liquidity. - The 100% accelerated depreciation tax incentive (Section 168K) in pending U.S. tax legislation allows capital gains to be fully offset in a single year through ASIC purchases, creating significant arbitrage opportunities. - Hash rate growth is constrained by physical infrastructure bottlenecks (data centers and energy production) rather than chip efficiency, suggesting Bitcoin price appreciation will outpace difficulty increases over the next three years. - The four-year Bitcoin cycle is likely dead due to institutional capital flows via ETFs and treasury companies, resulting in smaller drawdowns (likely 30–40% maximum) and a "staircase" pattern toward $1 million over 15 years rather than explosive boom-bust cycles. - Gen Z lacks capital accumulation incentive due to broken monetary policy and rising cost of living, resulting in delayed family formation, lower time preference, and lower Bitcoin adoption despite greatest need for hard money.