One Chair Podcast
Your guide to the companies stacking Bitcoin. We track the corporate treasuries holding Bitcoin and explore their strategies. We bring you all the insights, stories, and numbers…
Recent episodes
Is MSTR Missing Its Biggest Opportunity?
- Bitcoin treasury companies must evolve beyond pure Bitcoin-only models; those relying solely on equity issuance and Bitcoin accumulation face structural limitations and will not sustain long-term market support. - STRC and SATA behave as Bitcoin derivatives with strong correlation to Bitcoin price movements; STRC's decline to $70 during the October drawdown proved earlier predictions that stated par values cannot decouple from underlying asset volatility. - Capital actions (dividend payments via Bitcoin sales, buybacks, issuance) create only temporary price dislocations; correlations to Bitcoin and parent equity reestablish themselves within weeks, limiting the effectiveness of these moves. - Leverage will rebuild as Bitcoin recovers; "degens are gonna degen"—market participants will repeat leverage-driven behavior despite October's liquidation event and lessons learned. - Strategy's transparency and reactive messaging create both advantages and disadvantages; constant announcements about Bitcoin sales and policy shifts generate market overreaction and narrative whiplash rather than providing clarity. - Time and increasing market maturity are the primary catalysts for Bitcoin adoption, not a near-term "rotation" from AI; Bitcoin will move further into the risk curve as a core reserve asset over 5–10 years, similar to gold or real estate.
MSTR Is Getting Safer — But Is It Losing Its Bitcoin Edge?
- Strategy's $3 billion USD cash reserve has sparked debate about whether it strengthens or weakens the company's Bitcoin per share growth prospects. The move signals institutional investor demands for safety and optionality, but introduces a "cash drag" on amplification. - Bitcoin treasury companies introduce public market complexity and regulatory trust that conflicts with Bitcoin's permissionless ethos. Custody risk and proof of reserves remain key concerns, though regulated custodians like those used by Bitcoin ETFs have partially mitigated confidence issues. - The Treasury company thesis faces a core question: does owning MSTR or similar companies offer better returns than self-custody of Bitcoin, especially as these firms become more conservative to satisfy institutional capital? - AI demand has siphoned capital and attention from Bitcoin. Memory (SK Hynix, Samsung), power access (bitcoin miners pivoting to high-performance compute), and frontier models remain competitive, with uncertain timing for capital rotation back into Bitcoin. - Emotional investing and portfolio discipline are critical. Jody recommends a "trading bag" of smaller capital for speculative trades (AI, options) to satisfy the itch without compromising long-term Bitcoin holdings or triggering rash decisions. - Proof of reserves and multi-jurisdictional custody structures would reduce government seizure risk and align treasury companies more closely with Bitcoin's core values.
MSTR’s $300 Trillion Bitcoin Playbook Is Coming to Europe
- Capital B secured shareholder approval for €5 billion in equity issuance capacity and €100 billion in credit instrument capacity, positioning the company to scale its Bitcoin treasury strategy across Europe. - Digital credit is emerging as a major opportunity; perpetual, Bitcoin-backed credit instruments (pioneered by MicroStrategy and Strive) can provide financing without liquidation risk, with rates of 12–13% versus traditional leverage rates of 7–8%. - Recent volatility in digital credit products (STRC, SATA, STRF) revealed that seniority, cash reserves, investor protections, and balance-sheet structure directly impact instrument stability and valuation—lessons Capital B is studying closely. - Capital B aims to replicate MicroStrategy's playbook in Europe, particularly through France's progressive regulatory framework, which governs 40% of European credit markets and shows openness to digital asset innovation. - Institutional Bitcoin adoption is happening "silently"—via ETFs, bank lending, and corporate balance sheets—rather than through retail hype, marking a shift toward financial maturation and professionalization. - Bitcoin's long-term bull case hinges on monetary devaluation (7% annualized money supply growth since 1960), scarcity, and potential institutional positioning ahead of the next cycle.
MSTR Sold 3,588 BTC — Then Bitcoin Went Up
- Strategy sold 3,588 Bitcoin to fund dividends and harvest tax losses, which Richard views as positive capital market engineering that increases Bitcoin per share for shareholders. - Bitcoin treasury companies must defend a 1.0 mNAV by selling Bitcoin and buying back shares when trading below net asset value, to protect against hedge fund attacks and improve the mNAV multiple. - Hedge funds deliberately short Bitcoin treasury stocks using borrowed shares and negative sentiment campaigns to exploit companies that signal they will never sell Bitcoin. - Connecting Excellence (XCE) represents "Treasury 2.0"—a profitable business that benefits from being a public Bitcoin treasury company by offering employees stock options tied to Bitcoin upside, improving talent retention and recruitment. - Digital credit products (like STRC and SATA) require sufficient Bitcoin reserves and credit ratings to achieve meaningful issuance size and trading liquidity; Switzerland remains blocked by banking interests despite regulatory framework. - Nation-state Bitcoin adoption conversations now focus primarily on mining, energy infrastructure, and bond programs to raise capital and reduce IMF debt, with multiple Middle Asian countries close to issuing Bitcoin bonds.
Metaplanet Panic Has Peaked — Japan’s Bitcoin Trade Is Just Starting
- Bitcoin treasury companies facing severe stress testing in bear markets; MSTR, STRC, and STRF have traded at steep discounts despite strong underlying fundamentals - Strategy (MSTR) communication strategy has created investor whiplash by frequently shifting narratives; inconsistency between stated goals (increasing Bitcoin per share) and execution (dilutive fundraising) has eroded confidence - Metaplanet operating quietly but executing long-term fundamentals—acquiring Bitcoin via derivatives income (BIG program), building regulatory infrastructure through Shibo Securities acquisition, benefiting from Japan's low-rate environment - Bitcoin preferred shares (STRC, STRF) initially marketed as low-volatility instruments but proving highly volatile; hedge funds likely exploiting volatility profiles and large market cap - Strife and SmarterWeb winning on communication by maintaining consistent messaging and engaging communities through podcasts and transparency; this drives narrative and mindshare - Japan offers Metaplanet unique advantages: ability to issue preferreds at lower rates, potential to finance US treasury companies, and sophisticated derivatives expertise from Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley executives
MSTR Liquidation Panic Is Back — But the Math Says No
- Strategy (MSTR) announced a **$2.55 billion USD reserve policy**, rebuilt through a $1.15 billion common stock issuance, providing 17.4 months of dividend coverage. - STRC dividend rate increased 50 basis points (11.5% to 12%) and the company moved away from strict VWAP-based dividend guidance, giving management more flexibility. - Bitcoin monetization program allows MSTR to sell up to $1.25 billion in Bitcoin to increase USD reserves or repurchase preferred shares and common stock. - Board approval now required for major policy changes, signaling tighter governance over treasury and capital allocation decisions. - Hosts debunked liquidation fears, noting MSTR's balance sheet remains strong; Bitcoin would need to fall ~80% from current levels to approach 2022-level distress. - Market context: $4 billion in Bitcoin ETF outflows in June amid broader crypto downturn; MSTR common and preferred shares trading under pressure.
MSTR’s Biggest Signal Isn’t on the Chart
- Michael Sullivan has built an AI-driven sentiment analysis model that tracks 28+ emotions (conviction, optimism, fear, desire, anger, excitement, etc.) across individual Bitcoin users' language on X, going far beyond the binary Fear & Greed Index approach. - Early Bitcoiners show lower emotional volatility over time and more nuanced positioning around market tops and bottoms, while newer participants exhibit sharper mood swings tied to price action. - Michael Saylor's framework of four Bitcoiner cohorts—maximalists, fundamentalists, technologists, and capitalists—correlates strongly with distinct language patterns; capitalists discuss Bitcoin treasuries more, while fundamentalists emphasize self-custody and node-running. - Bitcoin Treasury companies' market valuations (mNAV) are driven predominantly by sentiment and narrative momentum rather than on-chain fundamentals; mention rate and emotional tone toward specific treasuries (MSTR, Metaplanet, Strive, SmarterWeb) diverge sharply from their actual Bitcoin holdings. - Current market conditions show extreme emotional fragmentation—anger and disapproval spike simultaneously as different cohorts double down on competing narratives and seek out villains within their own factions, a marked departure from the 2022 bear market's relative camaraderie. - The emotion of "desire" (wanting action without taking it) has peaked precisely at previous market tops; current cratering of optimism, conviction, and excitement suggests the speculative risk premium has been largely wrung out.
Metaplanet Has One Advantage MSTR Will Never Have
- Metaplanet's differentiated strategy versus other Bitcoin treasury companies, focusing on building durable, cash-flow-generating operating businesses rather than pure financial engineering and leverage. - Lessons from MicroStrategy's STRC depeg event (dropped to $0.82): preferred shares need daily or more frequent rate resets, clear risk disclosure to retail, streaming dividend mechanisms, and funding from stable cash flows rather than reserve draws. - Metaplanet's acquisition of Cibo as a step toward launching preferred shares in Japan; potential future U.S. preferred offering as part of multi-jurisdictional strategy. - Japan's structural advantage for Metaplanet: low interest rates, currency depreciation tailwind, and regulatory environment enabling preferred share issuance backed by Bitcoin collateral and operating cash flow. - Assessment of NAKA as a highly leveraged "option-like" play with significant downside risk due to senior debt obligations; Strive's strong execution and premium valuation relative to near-term upside. - Bitcoin treasury company landscape: only Strive has shown consistent execution comparable to MicroStrategy; smaller European and other plays lack differentiation or sufficient scale.
MSTR Is Building the Most Aggressive Bitcoin Trade on Earth
- Sovana's real estate-to-Bitcoin bridge: accredited investors can tap home equity on secondary/investment properties to fund Bitcoin or MSTR purchases via lien, with Sovana funding 100% upfront while investors get 40% of upside, 60% to Sovana, with principal protection guaranteed by property equity. - Strategy's latest $200M raise and dilution debate: Strategy bought 1,587 BTC using $100M of new capital while rebuilding USD reserves to $1.1B. Chase argues it's dilutive on MNAV basis but **accretive on Bitcoin-per-share basis** — the key metric in a hypothetical Bitcoin-denominated future economy. - Jack Mallers' "accretive dilution" challenge to Michael Saylor: Mallers correctly frames equity-for-dollars issuance as dilution, but Chase explains Strategy is effectively trading equity for Bitcoin (dollars are converted instantly), making it accretive to Bitcoin per share if Bitcoin outpaces the capital raise. - STRC vs SATA: Strive (SATA) now offers daily dividends versus Strategy's bi-monthly, maintains tighter par closer to $100, has simpler balance sheet messaging, and commands higher yield — yet Strategy's larger Bitcoin base and collateral remain competitive for risk-averse allocators. - Bitcoin treasury companies as "digital credit" (or "Bitcoin credit"): these products remove duration and volatility from Bitcoin, enabling mainstream savers—especially retiring boomers—to access yield without liquidation risk, onboarding capital that would otherwise stay in traditional savings or money markets. - Bitcoin Prague recap: high signal, packed halls, bullish sentiment despite bear-market pricing. Saylor and Mallers delivered strong keynotes; public debate on treasury strategy is healthy and part of Bitcoin ethos.
Everyone Focused on MSTR's 32 Bitcoin... They Missed the Bigger Story
- Strategy (MSTR) acquired 1,550 Bitcoin this week while raising $180 million in cash reserves, offset only slightly by the controversial sale of 32 Bitcoin last week. - Debate over whether the purchase is dilutive to shareholders versus strategically sound for de-risking the STRC product and strengthening the balance sheet. - Strategy's USD reserve management lacks clarity; the company depleted reserves to repay convertible debt weeks ago, surprising conservative STRC investors, then rebuilt reserves with this week's capital raise. - STRC depegging last week was driven by multiple factors: reserve depletion, competitive pressure from SETA's daily dividends, and market shock from the 32 Bitcoin sale. - STRC dividend payments move to semi-monthly frequency (approved by shareholder vote); SETA will pay daily dividends starting June. - New Bitcoin treasury entrants emerging: BSTR nearing SEC filing, Capital B expanding in Europe, and Swedish company planning perpetual preferred shares issuance.
What If Everyone Is Measuring MSTR Wrong?
- mNAV as sentiment metric: Adrian Morris argues that mNAV (market NAV multiple) is fundamentally a measure of market sentiment rather than a valuation tool, with no reliable predictive ability beyond a 90–100 trading day oscillation pattern around the mean of 1.0. - Bitcoin per share misconceptions: Bitcoin per share is presented as a flawed valuation metric because it measures an asset investors have no claim to and is mathematically destined to decay toward zero as Bitcoin mining approaches the 2140 halving limit. - MSTR's 32 BTC sale narrative: The recent sale was framed as a controlled market test to demonstrate flexibility; the outsized public reaction revealed how easily sentiment can be manipulated despite the sale representing <0.5% of holdings. - Preferred shares (STRC, SATA) as Bitcoin derivatives: These products are primarily Bitcoin derivatives, not stable fixed-income instruments; their price action mirrors Bitcoin's correlation (~0.60) and dividend sustainability remains uncertain at scale. - Future model evolution: Strategy and other treasury companies will likely need to evolve beyond pure equity issuance into REIT-like structures leveraging options, lending, and bundled Bitcoin products to achieve institutional acceptance and S&P 500 inclusion. - AI capital displacement: AI (especially through chip stocks like NVIDIA) has become the dominant secular trade, pulling capital from Bitcoin; Bitcoin lacks a compelling counter-narrative beyond crashes and requires broader adoption (institutions, nation-states) to regain momentum.
Strategy Sold 32 Bitcoin. Strive Bought 2,000+
- MicroStrategy sold 32 Bitcoin (0.0038% of holdings) last week, the first sale since 2022, triggering outsized market reaction despite being pre-announced in earnings calls. The sale raised $2.5M while concurrent common stock issuance raised $128M, illustrating the insignificance of the Bitcoin sale relative to other fundraising. - Strife's SETA (perpetual preferred share with daily dividends) accumulated an estimated 2,000+ Bitcoin last week and is trading near par on ex-dividend date despite broader market weakness, demonstrating strong product-market fit and 10%+ weekly additions to total stack. - MicroStrategy's STRC (common preferred share) maintained its 11.5% dividend rate unchanged, following predetermined rules despite trading below par. The product's underperformance relative to SETA raises questions about whether dividend guidance needs adjustment. - Procap sold 52 Bitcoin to repurchase shares at 50% discount to NAV, executing mathematically sound but narrative-weakening share buybacks. Sequence exited Bitcoin treasury strategy entirely, selling 456 Bitcoin and signaling low conviction. - Bitcoin treasury space consolidation is underway: weak hands and low-conviction holders are exiting while well-capitalized operators like Strife accelerate accumulation, creating a "weeding out" effect in a choppy market.
Strive Will Outperform MSTR — The 55x Gap Nobody’s Pricing In
- MicroStrategy convertible bond buyback: MSTR announced repurchase of $125 million in convertible bonds, likely financed through ATM offerings or potential Bitcoin sales rather than treasuries. This de-risks preferred shares (STRD, STRF) in the capital stack and improves credit rating outlook. - Strive vs. MicroStrategy comparison: While Strive shows strong near-term outperformance potential due to smaller size and higher MNAV expansion, MSTR remains vastly larger (55x) and possesses greater long-term optionality through credit markets, potential S&P inclusion, and Saylor's innovation capacity. - Daily dividends strategy: Strive's SETA announced daily dividend payments (vs. MSTR's bimonthly STRC model). Daily distributions reduce post-dividend price decay, enable intraday trading strategies, and facilitate future financial engineering and arbitrage opportunities. - Bitcoin treasury company differentiation: MSTR focuses on pure-play Bitcoin accumulation without M&A; Strive operates ETFs and asset management business. Both companies benefit mutually from competitive Bitcoin accumulation rather than direct competition. - Digital credit replacing altcoin narratives: Bitcoin treasury company preferred shares now offer levered Bitcoin exposure with yield, obsoleting the previous rationale for altcoin holdings. Crypto's historical yield and leverage use cases increasingly captured by digital credit products backed by Bitcoin. - Lightning network implications: Daily dividend mechanics may necessitate Bitcoin Lightning adoption to reduce administrative overhead and settlement friction at scale.
The 13% Yield Machine That Could Send Bitcoin to $1.6M
- Joe Burnett's path to Bitcoin: Started as a traditional value investor in 2017, researched Bitcoin fundamentals during the 2018 bear market, and eventually joined Bitcoin treasury companies (Similar Scientific, then Strive). - Bitcoin per share as the North Star: Strive's strategy focuses on increasing Bitcoin per share over time through careful custody, low-cost acquisition, and optimizing capital structure with perpetual preferred equity rather than debt. - Digital credit as a paradigm shift: Products like Stretch and Sata are opening Bitcoin exposure to new investor classes (conservative, yield-focused) who wouldn't otherwise hold volatile Bitcoin, representing net new capital inflow into the ecosystem. - Strategy's earnings call transparency: Michael Saylor's willingness to sell Bitcoin for share buybacks under certain conditions (when trading well below NAV) provides optionality and confidence for equity holders, not a strategy pivot. - Strive's structural advantages: A lean team (30 employees managing $1.2 billion in Bitcoin), perpetual preferred equity structure (avoiding debt maturity risk), and focus on credit quality of Seda position the company for sustained growth. - The CoffeeZilla conversation: Digital credit's high yields (11.5–13%) require clear explanation via insurance analogies; public debate with skeptics helps educate retail investors on how digital credit actually functions and differs from Ponzi schemes.