One Chair Podcast
Your guide to the companies stacking Bitcoin. We track the corporate treasuries holding Bitcoin and explore their strategies. We bring you all the insights, stories, and numbers…
Recent episodes
Why Wall Street May WANT MSTR to Issue More Shares | Inside the Walls Ep. 7
- Strategy's STRC digital credit instrument nearing $100 par value after recovery from June lows, with buyback activity demonstrating management commitment and attracting new institutional investors. - Bitcoin Treasury Companies face a two-engine growth model: Bitcoin price appreciation and mNAV expansion, both currently stable, meaning major market movements could dramatically reshape capital allocation strategies. - Institutional investors prioritize access to capital markets and liquidity; they favor continuous ATM (at-the-market) equity issuance combined with digital credit products to optimize overall returns rather than one instrument alone. - Smaller Bitcoin Treasury Companies like Capital B and Strive may have structural advantages over Strategy in maintaining amplification ratios during bull markets due to lower absolute capital requirements. - S&P's B- credit rating for Strategy appears mispriced because it does not account for Bitcoin's value on the balance sheet; comparing Strategy to traditional issuers like Total shows credit agencies use outdated methodologies. - Anthropic's November IPO faces headwinds from plummeting AI token prices, $600 billion in compute commitments (80% non-cancellable), tightening financial conditions, and an outdated H1 2026 S-1 filing that does not reflect current market deterioration.
MSTR Is Buying Back STRC. ASST Is Buying 4,045 Bitcoin.
- Strategy (MSTR) has deployed over $1 billion in STRC preferred share buybacks to push the price toward $100 par value, but market conditions suggest excess issuance has dampened effectiveness. - Strive (ASST) acquired 4,045 Bitcoin in one week through warrant exercises and announced a $700 million SATS IPO (upsized from $500 million), positioning it to reach approximately 44,000 Bitcoin and claim the #2 spot on Bitcoin Treasuries leaderboard within weeks. - SATS, Strive's new perpetual preferred stock, offers a 15% fixed dividend rate, priced at $90 (effective yield ~16.7%), creating interest rate and leverage risk if macro conditions shift. - Strategy and Strive compete via preferred equity capital-raising models; STRC trades below par despite stronger Bitcoin coverage than Strive's SATA, suggesting market saturation of STRC shares. - Metaplanet is expanding to US equity markets via Super Planet (SUPA), acquiring SLE and aiming to issue preferred equities to American capital markets with an initial 2,100 Bitcoin contribution. - Perpetual preferred equities have emerged as the dominant capital-raising tool for Bitcoin Treasury 2.0 companies, enabling amplified leverage and accelerated Bitcoin accumulation.
ASST's New 15% SATS Preferred: Higher Yield, Higher Risk?
- Digital credit markets are accelerating with Bitcoin treasury companies issuing perpetual preferred stocks; Strategy's STRC, Strive's new SATS (15% fixed dividend), and SmarterWeb's MORE (UK launch at £10 million) represent expanding capital structures matched to indefinite Bitcoin holding horizons. - Institutional demand for Bitcoin-backed securities is growing despite challenging market conditions; participants view these instruments as mispriced relative to traditional high-yield credit markets, offering 400–500 basis points pickup versus comparable risk issuers. - Bitcoin treasury companies continue aggressive accumulation: Strategy acquired 250 BTC (now 848,250 total), Strive acquired 6,133 BTC (now 35,595 total as fourth-largest publicly traded holder), and SmarterWeb acquired 83 BTC (2,830 total). - US inflation reached 3.7% in September, up from 3.4% in August, driving repricing of Fed rate hike probabilities; energy and commodity prices remain under upside pressure due to supply chain disruption and geopolitical tensions. - "Not your keys, not your coins" scaling impossibility is unavoidable; self-custody hardware wallet compromises (Ledger supply chain incident) and software vulnerabilities suggest institutional custody and multi-sig solutions will dominate Bitcoin's institutional future. - Credit rating divergence indicates mispricing: Strategy's STRC trades at yields suggesting triple-C risk despite B- issuer rating, implying market undervalues Bitcoin reserves and creates arbitrage opportunity attracting capital rotation from semiconductors and precious metals.
The Next MSTR Might Come From Europe
- Bitcoin Treasury amplification ratios are becoming a central competitive factor, with Strive pushing toward 60–70% while Smarter Web targets 35%, and market pricing ultimately determining appropriate levels for each company. - Strategy's STRC buybacks represent intelligent use of a lever to address temporary mispricings rather than market manipulation, allowing the company to accumulate Bitcoin at low prices while signaling commitment to its product objectives. - Europe offers distinct advantages for Bitcoin Treasury companies—particularly the second-largest global credit market, regulatory arbitrage, and scarcity of comparable issuers—that could enable European firms to achieve outsized returns during bull markets. - Digital Credit instruments (STRC, SATA, MORE) are entering a critical three-year window where institutional adoption typically accelerates, potentially creating exponential growth if volumes and stability support institutional capital allocation. - Capital B positions itself as Europe's early-stage equivalent to Strategy in the US and Strive on the amplification curve, with potential to grow from 3,500 BTC toward 210,000 BTC while leveraging European and US capital markets simultaneously. - By 2027, multiple digital credit issuers will likely exist, forming an industry at scale; Bitcoin appreciation combined with equity issuance capacity and digital credit growth could create a "triple acceleration" in corporate Bitcoin accumulation.
Smarter Web’s CEO Thinks Bitcoin Is Still Cheap at $250K
- Andrew Webley founded The Smarter Web Company as a Bitcoin treasury company listed on the London Stock Exchange's main market, inspired by Michael Saylor's strategy at MicroStrategy. - MORE is the first perpetual preferred equity denominated in British pounds and the first UK-listed company to pay weekly dividends on such an instrument. - MORE launches with a 12% initial variable dividend rate, £100 par value, two-year dividend cash buffer, and 35% maximum amplification ratio; the ratio can be adjusted by the board and mathematically could go higher. - Smarter Web is replacing its Coinbase-backed collateralized debt facility (currently at ~6.25% interest) with permanent capital via MORE to reduce leverage and enable further capital raises. - Bitcoin serves as the hurdle rate for Smarter Web's acquisition strategy; the company acquired Squarebird and continues to evaluate acquisition opportunities primarily in the UK. - Retail investors are included in the MORE IPO (priced at £90 with incentive to trade at par) alongside institutional demand; institutional investors are also showing renewed interest in the ordinary SWC equity as a result of the preferred equity launch.
Can MSTR Really Scale to $10 Billion of Bitcoin a Day?
- European sovereign bond markets are flashing warning signs, with France-Germany spreads at their highest since the euro crisis, signaling tightening financial conditions and potential growth repricing in equities. - Bitcoin-backed digital credit instruments (SATA, STRC, STRF) are trading near or above par despite rising yields, demonstrating resilience and building a critical track record for institutional adoption. - The convergence of three forces—debasement acceleration, AI-driven productivity gains, and institutional capital rotation—is positioning Bitcoin as the primary beneficiary across store-of-value, growth, and income strategies. - Institutions are now pursuing both Bitcoin treasury companies for growth and Bitcoin-backed digital credit for income, treating them as complementary rather than competing strategies. - AI models and large language models consistently rank Bitcoin as the best store of value, with stablecoins preferred for payments, validating the thesis that Ethereum and Solana lack absolute scarcity for monetary competition. - Relative valuations show Bitcoin in the 20th percentile while gold and stocks remain in the 80th–88th percentile, suggesting substantial capital rotation opportunity ahead.
ASST Could Become the #2 Bitcoin Treasury in 2026
- Strategy purchased 1,665 Bitcoin ($142M) and raised $246M via common ATM, reaching all-time high BTC holdings while continuing $152M STRC buyback program. - STRC remains below par despite ongoing buybacks; research suggests buybacks are less effective than allowing market recovery through time and trust. - Strategy announced daily dividends for STRC, STRF, STRC, and STRD starting November 2024, adopting Strive's successful feature. - Strive purchased 1,107 Bitcoin (4% of holdings) last week and raised $100M in CETA; ASST warrant exercise could unlock $700M in fresh capital. - If most ASST warrants exercise, Strive could become the #2 corporate Bitcoin holder globally behind Strategy by year-end, potentially surpassing MetaPlanet. - Rising short interest on ASST (nearly equal to warrants outstanding) adds upside catalyst; Strive may de-amplify via ATM during Bitcoin parabolic phase to avoid over-leverage at market tops.
Strategy Goes Daily. Bonds Break. Is Bitcoin Front-Running the Fed Pivot?
- Strategy announced daily dividends for perpetual preferred shares (STRF, STRC, STRK), following Strive's successful SATA model in the digital credit space. - mNAV (market net asset value) is the critical metric reflecting market expectations of Bitcoin treasury company growth, not historical performance metrics like Bitcoin yield alone. - Bitcoin treasury companies are evolving from simple accumulators into multi-engine capital allocation businesses combining common equity, digital credit, preferred stock, convertibles, and cash reserves. - US 10-year Treasury yields approaching 5.4–5.5% could trigger equity market correction (33% probability of 10%+ S&P 500 drawdown at 80+ bps yield shocks), potentially forcing central bank pivot and easing financial conditions. - Institutional investors showed resilience during recent 50% Bitcoin drawdown, with zero net selling among surveyed asset managers, pension funds, and wealth advisors; retail and hedge funds drove redemptions. - Europe's debt burden differs fundamentally from the US: Europe adds debt without capturing AI-driven growth, raising sovereign risk (France's yield spread highest since 2011); Bitcoin may become critical for currency debasement hedge.
ASST Has More Upside — So Why Buy MSTR?
- MSTR purchased 950 BTC without hitting the common ATM, instead deploying USD reserves; STRC remains below par while SATA holds par despite lower yield, primarily due to trust and communication differences. - Strive accumulated 1,355 BTC last week (5.4% of their stack), financed largely through SATA ATM issuance, demonstrating faster accumulation rate than Strategy. - ASST may deliver greater multiples of growth short-term, but MSTR remains the preferred long-term hold due to its position as the "gorilla" of Bitcoin treasuries with unmatched Bitcoin reserves. - Strategy's reduced USD reserve (from 18 months to 6 months) created investor panic; a 4–5 year runway is recommended to match the Bitcoin cycle and rebuild credit investor confidence. - Sovana's principal-protected Bitcoin investment partnerships unlock real-estate equity for Bitcoin allocation; clients overwhelmingly prefer MSTR and ASST over spot Bitcoin exposure. - Bitcoin's recent strength despite negative macro headlines (Fed rate hikes, Clarity Act failure) signals a shift from risk-asset correlation toward recognition of Bitcoin's macroeconomic utility.
Trillions Are About to Flow Into Bitcoin w/ Sam Callahan
- OranjeBTC is executing a Bitcoin treasury strategy in Latin America, accumulating Bitcoin and launching financial products including DIGY11, a digital yield ETF denominated in Brazilian Real that provides exposure to STRC and SATA instruments. - Bitcoin-backed perpetual preferred equity instruments (STRC and SATA) are attracting institutional demand because they combine attractive yields, liquidity, and price stability compared to traditional alternatives. - The intersection of Bitcoin and capital markets represents the next major wave of institutional adoption, with most of the infrastructure still in early development. - OranjeBTC allocated 20% of its Bitcoin holdings to active treasury strategies, including a carry trade using STRC that generates yield while managing volatility through diversification of risk profiles. - Fiscal dominance and structural deficits in developed economies (particularly the US) create long-term currency debasement risk that makes hard assets like Bitcoin increasingly important as a hedge. - Education remains critical to Bitcoin adoption, especially in emerging markets; OranjeBTC launched bitcoin.com.br as a resource hub to address information asymmetry and improve financial literacy.
MSTR Just Hit Zero Net Debt—Now the Real Bitcoin Trade Begins
- Strategy (MSTR) raised $2 billion via common stock ATM, bringing total cash to over $6.7 billion and achieving near-zero net debt when comparing cash to convertible debt. - MSTR created a separate $1.59 billion USD cash reserve distinct from its dividend-coverage reserve, signaling intention to use proceeds for Bitcoin purchases, debt retirement, or buybacks. - MSTR underperformed Bitcoin during the 22% weekly surge, likely due to aggressive ATM issuance, while competitors Strive and Metaplanet rallied much harder. - Strive (ASST) surged nearly 50% in one week, raised $99 million combined through preferred and common stock ATMs, and acquired 1,110 BTC—a 5% increase in holdings in just seven days. - Bitcoin rallied over 20% week-over-week after prolonged sideways trading, likely triggered by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's comments on yield curve positioning and short liquidations. - The Bitcoin treasury company flywheel appears to be restarting as institutional and ETF inflows accelerate, potentially signaling early innings of a bull market.
MSTR Is Setting Up for Its Most Powerful Bitcoin Cycle Yet
- Strategy completed a $330 million common stock raise, increasing its USD reserve to $4.8 billion (2.8 years of dividend coverage) while continuing STRC buybacks and covering biweekly dividends without depleting the reserve. - Analysis suggests Strategy could reach ~$7 billion in USD reserves to achieve zero net debt in USD terms, but hosts debate whether aggressive reserve-building during a bear market is optimal timing. - Michael Saylor stated Strategy will not sell STRC above $100 to maintain product liquidity and avoid excessive speculation, contrasting with Strive's more flexible approach to SATA pricing. - Strive ASST faces nearly 30% short interest despite trading well above February lows and accumulating 79 Bitcoin last week without SATA buybacks, suggesting shorts may face significant pain if Bitcoin enters an uptrend. - MSCI methodology changes threaten to remove remaining Bitcoin treasury companies from major indexes, though Bitcoin price has remained stable amid this and other recent headwinds. - Bitcoin's resilience through summer FUD (Clarity Act delays, MSTR selling pressure) combined with potential autumn cycle recovery sets up an interesting narrative for late 2026.
MSTR Could 10x in the Next Bitcoin Bull Run
- Robin Seyr's bull case for Strategy (MSTR) centers on its role as "amplified Bitcoin"—historical data shows MSTR outperformed Bitcoin by 3.5x when Bitcoin rose 2–4x, and by 13.2x when Bitcoin rose 4.4x over two-year periods. - Strategy is on pace for a record Bitcoin accumulation year despite being in a bear market; even accounting for recent Bitcoin sales, they are projected to buy 265,000–270,000 Bitcoin by year-end, surpassing the previous record of 257,000. - Strategy's USD reserve has grown to $4.65 billion, providing nearly three years of dividend coverage for STRC and signaling strength to institutional investors; Seyr believes it should reach five years of coverage to silence critics. - The STRC (Strategy preferred stock) discount to par value is narrowing as Strategy buys back shares with Bitcoin sales; Seyr expects STRC to return to $100 par within 30–45 days, benefiting early buyers with 20%+ gains plus dividends. - Custody risk and rehypothecation concerns are overblown; Seyr argues that Strategy's SEC regulation, audits, and the game theory of management incentives make such fraud extremely unlikely compared to risks in traditional equities. - Self-custody education remains critical; the Coldcard incident actually drove adoption of better self-custody practices rather than deterring Bitcoin users, and understanding Bitcoin fundamentals is necessary to grasp why Strategy is undervalued.
Did Strive Just Force MSTR to Change Strategy?
- Strategy sold $108 million in Bitcoin to fund STRC buybacks while raising $650 million via common stock ATM, bringing USD reserves to $4.65 billion (2.7 years of coverage). - Strategy may be targeting zero net debt by closing the $2 billion gap between $6.75 billion convertible debt and $4.65 billion cash reserves, a powerful narrative for investors. - Market shows no reaction to Strategy's repeated Bitcoin sales over multiple weeks, suggesting sellers are exhausted and narrative risk has been priced in. - H100 completed acquisition to reach 3,506 Bitcoin, becoming Europe's largest Bitcoin treasury company and positioning for a potential Swiss franc-denominated preferred. - Strive acquired 147 Bitcoin, maintains disciplined 18-month USD reserve guidance, and SATA trades near par at ~$99 with double-digit Bitcoin yields. - European fragmented capital markets create distinct opportunities for multiple Bitcoin credit instruments across currencies (CHF, EUR, GBP, SEK, NOK).
Why Is MSTR Building a $4 Billion Cash Pile?
- Strategy (MSTR) executed major capital moves: issued $290 million in common stock, sold $104 million of Bitcoin, raised USD reserve to $4 billion, bought back $81 million of STRC convertible debt, and maintained dividend payments. - STRC (Strategy convertible notes) is climbing toward par value ($91+) for the first time in months, driven by confidence in management's balance-sheet repair strategy. - The **tradeoff between cash reserves and Bitcoin per share**: while Strategy's accumulation rate has slowed (from 13% annual gain to 3.5%), the moves are designed for long-term shareholder accretion once STRC reaches par. - Strategy's $4 billion USD reserve now covers 2.3 years of dividend obligations, exceeding their 12-month minimum policy and signaling financial strength to credit agencies. - Coldcard hardware wallet security breach: a batch of Coldcard devices generated weak entropy, allowing AI-assisted seed recovery and resulting in significant Bitcoin theft. - Custody risk across all custody models (self-custody, ETFs, exchanges, Bitcoin treasuries) remains present; transparency around institutional custody practices is limited and warrants greater disclosure.
MSTR Earnings Call: The New Playbook Every Investor Should Understand
- Strategy's USD reserve increased to $3.75 billion with 2.1 years of dividend coverage, addressing investor concerns about STRC stability and demonstrating disciplined capital allocation. - STRC dividend rate will remain capped at 12% rather than increasing further; management emphasized USD reserve sufficiency over higher dividend yields for preference investors. - Strategy raised $17 billion year-to-date in 2026 (bear market), on pace to exceed the full-year $25.3 billion raised during the 2024–2025 bull market, signaling strong institutional access to capital markets. - Strategic shift from "never sell Bitcoin" dogma to **active balance-sheet management**, including potential Bitcoin sales, share buybacks, and USD reserve adjustments to support digital-credit instruments. - Bitcoin accumulation accelerated to 840,000 BTC by mid-2026 (up from 670,000 at end-2025) despite flat price environment, driven primarily by STRC issuance proceeds. - Michael Saylor committed to never issuing STRC below par ($100), even at $99.99, reinforcing investor confidence in the instrument's design.
MSTR Built a Bitcoin Empire—Now the Market Wants Proof
- Jack Mallers' departure from XXI Capital: Halston was unsurprised by his exit, citing misalignment between Mallers' Bitcoin-maximalist philosophy and XXI's financial instruments strategy. She views it as admirable honesty rather than failure. - Bitcoin treasury company consolidation: Only the top five companies with genuine product differentiation or operating businesses will survive. Simply holding Bitcoin on a balance sheet is insufficient; companies need software, services, or financial innovation to create real value. - Orange Juice / Lean Alden's PE model: A new private equity firm with permanent Bitcoin treasury backing (not seeking exit) represents an interesting evolution. Potential IPO listing may create public-market constraints. - Strategy's Bitcoin sales and USD reserve builds: Interpreted as "inoculation" signaling to credit markets. However, retail investor indifference to growing USD reserves suggests strategy confusion; debt load (convertibles) differentiates STRC negatively versus Strive's SATA. - Community infighting and cultural evolution: Halston rejects claims Bitcoin culture is "dying"—fighting indicates vitality. Multiple truths coexist: freedom tech and Wall Street adoption are not mutually exclusive. Geopolitical chaos and media FUD, not institutional adoption, better explain recent bear market. - Proof of reserves necessity: As Bitcoin treasuries scale and paper products grow, public proof-of-reserves audits will become essential for credibility, differentiating serious operators from opaque ones.
Is MSTR Missing Its Biggest Opportunity?
- Bitcoin treasury companies must evolve beyond pure Bitcoin-only models; those relying solely on equity issuance and Bitcoin accumulation face structural limitations and will not sustain long-term market support. - STRC and SATA behave as Bitcoin derivatives with strong correlation to Bitcoin price movements; STRC's decline to $70 during the October drawdown proved earlier predictions that stated par values cannot decouple from underlying asset volatility. - Capital actions (dividend payments via Bitcoin sales, buybacks, issuance) create only temporary price dislocations; correlations to Bitcoin and parent equity reestablish themselves within weeks, limiting the effectiveness of these moves. - Leverage will rebuild as Bitcoin recovers; "degens are gonna degen"—market participants will repeat leverage-driven behavior despite October's liquidation event and lessons learned. - Strategy's transparency and reactive messaging create both advantages and disadvantages; constant announcements about Bitcoin sales and policy shifts generate market overreaction and narrative whiplash rather than providing clarity. - Time and increasing market maturity are the primary catalysts for Bitcoin adoption, not a near-term "rotation" from AI; Bitcoin will move further into the risk curve as a core reserve asset over 5–10 years, similar to gold or real estate.
MSTR Is Getting Safer — But Is It Losing Its Bitcoin Edge?
- Strategy's $3 billion USD cash reserve has sparked debate about whether it strengthens or weakens the company's Bitcoin per share growth prospects. The move signals institutional investor demands for safety and optionality, but introduces a "cash drag" on amplification. - Bitcoin treasury companies introduce public market complexity and regulatory trust that conflicts with Bitcoin's permissionless ethos. Custody risk and proof of reserves remain key concerns, though regulated custodians like those used by Bitcoin ETFs have partially mitigated confidence issues. - The Treasury company thesis faces a core question: does owning MSTR or similar companies offer better returns than self-custody of Bitcoin, especially as these firms become more conservative to satisfy institutional capital? - AI demand has siphoned capital and attention from Bitcoin. Memory (SK Hynix, Samsung), power access (bitcoin miners pivoting to high-performance compute), and frontier models remain competitive, with uncertain timing for capital rotation back into Bitcoin. - Emotional investing and portfolio discipline are critical. Jody recommends a "trading bag" of smaller capital for speculative trades (AI, options) to satisfy the itch without compromising long-term Bitcoin holdings or triggering rash decisions. - Proof of reserves and multi-jurisdictional custody structures would reduce government seizure risk and align treasury companies more closely with Bitcoin's core values.
MSTR’s $300 Trillion Bitcoin Playbook Is Coming to Europe
- Capital B secured shareholder approval for €5 billion in equity issuance capacity and €100 billion in credit instrument capacity, positioning the company to scale its Bitcoin treasury strategy across Europe. - Digital credit is emerging as a major opportunity; perpetual, Bitcoin-backed credit instruments (pioneered by MicroStrategy and Strive) can provide financing without liquidation risk, with rates of 12–13% versus traditional leverage rates of 7–8%. - Recent volatility in digital credit products (STRC, SATA, STRF) revealed that seniority, cash reserves, investor protections, and balance-sheet structure directly impact instrument stability and valuation—lessons Capital B is studying closely. - Capital B aims to replicate MicroStrategy's playbook in Europe, particularly through France's progressive regulatory framework, which governs 40% of European credit markets and shows openness to digital asset innovation. - Institutional Bitcoin adoption is happening "silently"—via ETFs, bank lending, and corporate balance sheets—rather than through retail hype, marking a shift toward financial maturation and professionalization. - Bitcoin's long-term bull case hinges on monetary devaluation (7% annualized money supply growth since 1960), scarcity, and potential institutional positioning ahead of the next cycle.