The Bitcoin Treasuries Podcast
Corporate Bitcoin treasury strategy and filings-grade analysis.
Recent episodes
The Power Law Projects $500K Bitcoin By 2030 — Here's The Math
- Power law analysis of Bitcoin: Bitcoin follows a power law growth curve (not exponential like traditional assets), with an R-squared of 96%. This suggests Bitcoin is currently in the lower percentile bands relative to historical trend, making it relatively cheap by this metric. - Four-year cycle evolution: The expected blow-off top in fall 2024 did not materialize, and the price decline was more moderate than prior cycles. This may signal the four-year cycle is weakening as institutional adoption (ETFs, corporate treasuries, Michael Saylor buying) increases and dampens volatility. - Declining but still-strong growth rates: Bitcoin's annualized growth rate is declining from earlier levels—currently around 40% per year doubling every two years, projected to fall to 30% CAGR by 2029 and 20% by 2041. This is still robust but represents maturation of the asset. - Monetary base expansion and long-term price targets: Central bank monetary base has grown from $30 trillion (post-COVID) to $26 trillion and is projected to reach $150 trillion by end of 2030s. By that timeframe, Bitcoin's market cap could similarly scale to $500K–$600K per coin if it captures comparable share. - Saylor's leverage strategy and structural limits: Michael Saylor's ability to borrow at ~10% to buy Bitcoin works while Bitcoin grows faster. However, as Bitcoin's growth rate declines toward 10–15% over the next 5–10 years, this arbitrage will compress. Saylor's thesis assumes Bitcoin will maintain 21% CAGR—a view Mazinski finds optimistic and "cute." - Centralization and sovereignty risks: The biggest long-term risk is whether institutional accumulation (ETFs, treasuries, custodians) could gate-keep Bitcoin through KYC/AML, creating a forked reality where decentralized Bitcoin exists but lacks economic value. Censorship and capital controls remain real threats, especially in authoritarian regimes.
Wall Street Veteran: Saylor Has The Largest Preferred Structure On The Planet — And Nobody Talks About It
- Sovereign debt crisis & currency debasement: US debt-to-GDP has risen from 80% (2008) to 126% today. Mark argues the only exits are currency debasement or default, making Bitcoin a "terra firma" to step onto while systems rebuild. - Federal Reserve structural changes: Repeal of the supplemental leverage ratio (SLR) will allow banks to hold unlimited treasuries at effectively zero cost, shifting risk from the Fed's balance sheet to member banks without solving underlying debt problems. - Treasury funding runway under stress: Foreign demand for US treasuries has dried up; hedge funds stepping in are unreliable holders in times of market stress and will likely sell at the worst times, echoing 2020 COVID dynamics. - Glass-Steagall repeal as inflection point: The 1998–1999 repeal allowed commercial and investment banking to merge, creating systemic structural fragility that downstream manifested in 2008 crisis and ongoing bank risk-pricing failures. - Bitcoin as portfolio diversifier & macro hedge: A 3% quarterly Bitcoin allocation in a 60/40 portfolio increased returns ~35% while reducing downside deviation; Bitcoin has positive skew and low correlation to traditional assets even in downturns (2017, 2022). - Mining decentralization & network resilience: As mining becomes more distributed away from centralized data centers, Bitcoin's security and resilience strengthen, supporting higher valuations for Bitcoin-backed financial instruments like Saylor's preferred equity offering.